CPAC straw poll

Not that it has any significance, beyond being interesting, but the Conservative PAC meeting ended today with announcement of the straw poll results. Results may be somewhat influenced by the fact that Palin and Huckabee did not attend or speak. But here they are:

Ron Paul 30% (he also won in 2008, which shows how predictive this poll is)

Mitt Romney 23%

But 42% voted for somebody else, spread out among a whole bunch of them: Gary Johnson 6%; Chris Christie 6%; Newt Gingrich 5%; Tim Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann, and Mitch Daniels each 4%; Sarah Palin 3%; Herman Cain, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and John Thune, each 2%, and John Huntsman and Haley Barbour, each 1%.

Let's hope Newt doesn't see this as a groundswell mandate for him. It wouldn't surprise me though, if he does. Newt's pretty creative when it comes to imagined mandates.

Ralph

Egypt - 2

With the dramatic, peaceful overthrow of their repressive government, the people of Egypt now face the daunting task of creating a government. Because the massive demonstrations were broad based and lacked any obvious power center or organized leadership, there is fear that one group or another will take advantage of the situation and grasp power.

So far, all the signs are good. Two important developments announced today:

1. The Armed Forces Supreme Council, the military group now in charge of running the country, has issued a statement committing to the eventual transfer of power to an elected civilian government and committing to honor Egypt's existing international treaties and agreements, including the one with Israel.

2. According to a report by the (UK) Guardian, the Muslim Brotherhood has no intention of grasping for power. The group has announced that it will not compete in any presidential elections or seek to gain a majority in parliament.

"The Muslim Brotherhood ... are not seeking personal gains, so they announce they will not run for the presidency and will not seek to get a majority in the parliament and that they consider themselves servants of these decent people. We support and value the sound direction that the Higher Military Council is taking on the way to transfer power peacefully to create a civilian government in line with the will of the people."

Two other significant happenings today:

1. Egypt's state and pro-government media have switched their message from pro-Mubarak to now celebrating his ouster.

2. The protesters, even without obvious central leadership, are acting like an organized group with a very positive ethic. Some group has met and made the decision that the daily demonstrations in Tahrir Square will not continue, but that they will have large crowds there every Friday to keep the spirit alive and to keep pressure on the progress of the transition. They are also calling for a voice in the planning for transfer to democracy. And they are having a day of clean-up of Tahrir Square, to repair the damage from the 18 days of demonstrations.

This continues to be an amazing story, one of the great historic successes in regime change from a dictatorship in a Muslim country to a secular democracy with civilian elected leaders. There will be big problems to solve and risks of interference, but another day has passed with only good news.

I would like to make an early nomination for Time's Person of the Year for 2011: The Egyptian People.

Ralph

Triumph of the Egyptian people in peaceful, but forceful, overthrow of government

To me, it seems one of the greatest examples ever of the power of peaceful protest to overthrow a repressive, entrenched regime. At least as of mid-afternoon Friday, EST, Mubarak has reportedly resigned and left, turning power over to the military -- with relatively minor bloodshed. And fortunately this military seems apt to handle it wisely and provide for an orderly but quick transition to free elections and democracy.

Several elements have probably made this possible:

(1) Mubarak has certainly wielded despotic power, cruel police-state tactics -- but he has also been an important ally with the U.S. and Israel, ever since the the Camp David Accords went into effect in 1980 (and give Jimmy Carter his due on that). Mubarak's hated regime, unlike some hated regimes, has contributed to stability in a volatile region. Therefore, Mubarak is one of those despots with whom it has been advantageous for us to work, which leads to #2.

(2) The United States has had significant influence, but not control of, Mubarak. This is of course in part the money we supplied his government through the years. And, although my knowledge of the details is sketchy, my understanding is that we have done it in a way to give us more influence over the Egyptian military even than over Mubarak himself. That may help explain why the military is siding with the people rather than protecting Mubarak.

(3) Apparently Mubarak double-crossed everyone with his speech yesterday. Spokesmen for the Egyptian military and the U. S. Government say that they were not expecting his refusal to step down. But it proved to be only the last hurrah of a man whose time has passed, and his stubborn refusal to go proved to be just a last bump in the road.

(4) The true heroes here are the protesters themselves and whoever/whatever prevailed in keeping this many people focused on a non-violent approach to regime change. Hundreds of thousands on repeated occasions, and on several they were counted in the millions, flooded the streets and squares in peaceful demonstration. There is true power in such numbers. Too many to arrest, too many to kill, and the risk of setting off rioting was too great: the country would be plunged into uncontrollable chaos. Ghandi and Martin Luther King were right.

(5) The military let it be known that they would try to keep some order but they would act to protect the demonstrators. That showed whose side they were on. When "pro-Mubarak supporters" (really, paid thugs) began battling the protesters, the military protected the protesters, pushing back the attacking thugs.

(6) President Obama's caution and behind the scenes diplomatic pressure was (as far as we know now) the exactly correct stance. He was walking a tightrope -- needing to work with Mubarak if he stayed in power, but not wanting to be identified with him if he stepped down. And once again it points up the importance of having an adult in charge. Obama's caution was right. Any more support for Mubarak would have increased anti-American feeling in the people. We can dismiss as political posturing the taunting criticism of some of the potential GOP candidates, but at least they were not in charge -- and we should remember this in 2012.

As of now, this seems like a huge success story. Of course, there will be bumpy roads ahead. Right now, the pressure is on the military leaders to proceed wisely. My guess is that our diplomatic and military advisers will play a role behind the scenes; but it is ultimately the Egyptians themselves -- and these crowds are largely educated and middle class -- who will determined the next shape of their government. That was what Obama kept coming back to time and again: this will be determined by the Egyptian people themselves. And it was.

Let's hope that the anti-Obama crowd here in the US will have the good sense not to overplay the "Muslim Brotherhood" card and arouse fear of having Egypt become a theocracy. By all responsible reporters who have contacts and knowledge, this is not what the Brotherhood is wanting. They want to be part of a democratic process. They don't need ignorant US politicians instilling doubt about their intentions where there is none.

Ralph

"Come back, Little Rudy"

I never thought Rudy would seem like one of the less objectionable prospects for the 2012 GOP nomination, but the bottom rungs are getting crowded.

Already, there was She Who Shall Not Be Named, along with Michele and Newt. And then Rand Paul (yes, Rand, not papa Ron) said the other day that, if nominated, he would run. How coy !! And Rick Santorum has been making sure he's visible lately.

And then, OMG: The DONALD.

Mr. Trump created some buzz today at the CPAC meeting, saying he might run "because the United States is becoming the laughing stock of the world" and needs "an accomplished president."

"Rudy !!" "Ru-u-d-y !!!" "Come back, Little Rudy !!!!"

Ralph

PS: With apologies to playwright William Inge and Shirley Booth, who got a Best Actress Oscar for "Come Back, Little Sheba."

PPS: Why is a person who writes play called a playwright and not a playwrite?

Short, short takes: good, bad, and awful

1. The best: Rep. Gabrielle Giffords is now able to speak a few words and improving every day. She asked for toast for breakfast yesterday.

2. A ridiculous fantasy: As if we didn't have enough Palin news, single mom Bristol is cashing in and trying to extend her 15 minutes of fame. She dropped a hint in an interview that she might in the future seek higher office, whereupon speculation immediately went wild that she might seek the presidency in 2032.

3. A ridiculous fact of life: Rep. Fed Upton (R-Mich) is the new chair of the House Energy Committee; and, although he accepts that the climate is changing, he does not believe that humans have any part in causing it. This certainly augers well for progress on global warming.

4. Regretable: Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) has announced that he will not seek re-election to a second term, thus making another critical Democratic seat vulnerable in a crucial swing state.

5. Let's you and him fight category: Sen. McNothing and Rummy are exchanging insults via the media: In his new self-serving book, Rummy said McNothing has a hair-trigger temper, and McN. countered with: "Thank God he was relieved of his duties." Fight it out guys, and may you both emerge the worse for wear and tear.

6. A tough place to be gay: GOProud, the gay group in the Republican Party, is waging a good fight against bigotry in the GOP, going after Pawlenty for wanting to repeal the repeal (no, I am not stuttering) of DADT. The good news: The Conservative PAC agreed to let GOProud participate in their conference last weekend. The bad news: A number of potential speakers canceled because GOProud was being welcomed.

7. Schadenfreude: Michele Bachmann is in hot water with the elections commission, which is asking for an explanation about the $1.5 million in campaign contributions she recently reported, apparently without sufficient documentation. May she stew in her own hot water.

8. Egyptian protesters haven't given up and are not buying the time-buying promises of Mubarak's regime -- the fear being that Sulieman, in his role as VP, is beginning to look more like a Mubarak loyalist instead of sympathetic to the protesters, which may undermine him as the possible transition leader.

Ralph

A chink in the House GOP unity

The House GOP lost a significant vote today that would have extended three provisions of the Patriot Act. It was apparently a miscalculation of their support, and 26 Republicans voted with the Democrats in a bipartisan defeat of measures that critics see as an infringement on civil rights.

Republicans brought up the vote under a special expedited provision that requires a 2/3 vote, thinking they had it. They didn't.

The three measures which would have been extended, but now will presumably expire unless approved by Feb 28th, are: (1) court-approved, roving wire-taps on multiple phones; (2) court-approved access to "any tangible thing," like library records, that might be relevant to terrorism investigations; and (3) secret surveillance of non-US citizens not known to be associated with a specific terrorism organization.

Beyond the importance of that many Republicans supporting civil rights over "Patriotism" hysteria, this also signals a failure of GOP nose-counting and discipline in the House. Or, rather, it may reflect the libertarian streak of some of the new Tea Party crowd.

At any rate, it seems like a win politically for the Democrats.

Ralph

Nathan Deal's deal: Well, that didn't take long . . .

Some people worried that we shouldn't elect a governor who was under a cloud of such financial woes that he was in danger of losing his home and other major assets to pay off huge debts that would otherwise throw him into bankruptcy.

There was no need to worry about Nathan Deal's finances. We already had seen that, as a congressman, he knew how to work the system and use his influence, knew how to get friends on bank boards to lend him money when they shouldn't, and knew how to get special deals to benefit his business interests and to solve his financial problems.

According to yesterday's AJC, less than a month after Deal was sworn in as governor, his son-in-law, Clint Wilder, went to work as the Georgia Health Care Association's director of program development. Yes, the same Clint Wilder who failed to disclose a previous bankruptcy which made him ineligible for the bankruptcy he was improperly granted last year, leading the judge to reopen the case and invalidate the bankruptcy. The son-in-law's failed business led to Deal's financial embarrassment in the first place, because he had guaranteed loans for Clint and Carrie Deal Wilder's business that failed.

Jon Howell, president of the Health Care Association, praises Clint's qualifications for the job and states that they knew who his father-in-law is but that he didn't talk to the governor about the job because they wanted "to make it clear there was going to be no involvement down at the State Capitol."

Of course not; when we do backroom deals, we cover our tracks and are careful to preserve deniability.

OK, deny all you want, Mr. Howell. But the Georgia Health Care Association is a lobbying organization for nursing homes. The State of Georgia spends more than $1 billion every year paying for care of residents in nursing homes. Regulation of nursing homes is state business; paying for all this care is state business.

Although Wilder's job description does not include lobbying, it's hard to see how Governor Deal would not be very grateful to them for hiring his bankrupt son-in-law. He doesn't need to "lobby." Simply hiring him and paying him a big salary is enough to gain favor. GHCA is not disclosing Clint's salary, but a big one could help a lot -- even indirectly help Gov. Deal, since he's responsible for the business loans Wilder can't repay.

Gratitude in high places -- tell me it doesn't influence decisions. Want to argue that Wilder would have gotten the job anyway, without the known connection? Want to place bets on the chance of Gov. Deal pulling strings to influence legislation that would be opposed by the nursing home lobby?

Come on, folks. This is exactly the kind of thing we predicted -- just not quite so soon. Behind that genial demeanor, Nathan Deal is an operator par excellence.

No need to worry about his financial future.

Ralph

A great metaphor

Former Senator Alan Simpson (R-WY) is known for using colorful language. In an interview today on CNN's "State of the Union," he got off perhaps his best yet metaphor.

Simpson was co-chair of the president's Debt Commission, which was charged with recommending a plan for dealing with the national debt. He was chiding congressmen who want to do it by attacking small-time savings, like earmarks, fraud, waste and other minor contributions without tackling Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and Defense.

Without addressing those "big four," Simpson says, "anything else is just"

"a sparrow belch in the midst of a typhoon."

What a great line !

Ralph

Egyptian protestors: concenssions not enough

Mohamued Shelbaya, an Egyptian international arbitration lawyer, called into The Huffington Post and offered the following feedback on the government’s concessions:

They didn’t do any concessions other than those that were already in the speech by the president and vice president because they didn’t agree to lift the Emergency Act as an act. They simply said they would lift the state of emergency, which is a simple legal characterization of what the situation in the country is, when the situation metabolizes, which is basically what they’ve been saying for the past thirty years.

The other points were basically points that were all taken out of the speech of president's, i.e. the not running [for] reelection [in] September and the modifications of Article 67 and 66 of the Constitution.

After reading the first AP report about the meeting of the Eqyptian VP with representatives of the protestors, I was too ready to believe a real solution was emerging. The AP and I were both not sufficiently knowledgeable or critical. Let's wait for further developments.

Ralph

Dr. Denmark at 113.

Years ago, I marveled at stories of pediatrician Dr. Leila Denmark still in practice at 103. She retired then but is still living at 113 -- reportedly the 7th oldest living American. Somewhat frail, she now lives with her daughter in Atlanta.

She was a pioneer as one of the early women in medicine, being the only woman to graduate from the Medical College of Georgia in the Class of 1928.

She dispensed no-nonsense, practical advice about child-rearing along with medicine and had a loyal following of mothers, whose daughter's are now raising their own children according to Dr. Denmark's wisdom.

A remarkable woman.

Ralph

Loud-mouth Newt gets it wrong . . . again

As of Sunday morning, the news out of Egypt sounds promising. The newly appointed Vice President Omar Sulieman has met with opposition representatives and made major concessions, including: guaranteeing freedom of the press, releasing detained protesters, ending the emergency security laws, and setting up a committee of judiciary and political figures to propose constitutional changes. Short of forcing Mubarak to resign immediately and leave the country (we tried to persuade him to do that and he was obdurate, apparently), this should bring hope of real change, as long as it's clear that Sulieman is in charge and has the power to effect these changes.

Of course, it remains to be seen whether these promises will actually be carried out. It appears that restrictions and some attacks on journalists continue. The shift in U.S. position toward active support for a speedy, but gradual, transition of power indicates that we favor this approach and perhaps helped orchestrate it.

The Obama administration has been an active behind-the-scenes force, encouraging change and Mubarak's stepping down but forging it in a way that makes for an orderly transition instead of chaos or the risk of the Muslim Brotherhood stepping into a leadership vacuum. Putting pressure on a flawed but former ally to step down, while still recognizing the important role he has played as an important Middle East stabilizing force -- sounds like the right stance for us to take, and most Republican leaders have respected that and held back on criticizing Obama.

Not so, our own presidential candidate (he indicated last week that he will set up his campaign headquarters in Atlanta) Newt Gingrich, whose narcissistic mirror is telling himself that our country needs him to save it from the liberals and the wimpy internationalists, who are too weak in opposing Islamic extremism. Here's what he said on Sean Hannity's show last week, warning that Egypt could "go the way of Iran" and fall into the hands of an Islamic extremist dictatorship:

I think this is a period of tremendous challenge and is a sign of the general failure of our strategy of not dealing with radical Islamists and not being honest and aggressive of what's going on around the world.

He charged that Obama's administration had not taken the Middle East seriously, suggesting that Obama should not have given that 2009 speech in Egypt, "geared toward repairing America's relationship with the Muslim world."

In short, Newt is forging his stance to appeal to the right-wing war hawks who love nothing so much as war. In other words, we ignore the people's needs and just get rid of their leaders -- thus controlling them by threats and fear. These are the hawks who led us to invade Iraq, who would have us bomb Iran, and throw our weight around in all the other hot spots in the Middle East. In short, they think only the U.S. can determine the right course in the Middle East and that Obama's approach of building bridges of respect and partnership is weakness.

That's what we need. Another hot-headed hawk in the White House.

Newt -- your mirror lies to you.
We do NOT need you as president !!!!!
You are not the "fairest one of all."

Try another mirror, one that's not made out of your own magical thinking. Listen to someone besides yourself.

Oh, darn, I forgot. The is no one besides yourself. That's the problem.

Ralph