Polls are notoriously unreliable in special elections and even moreso in runoffs of those special elections. Yet the special elections to fill empty congressional seats in Montana (today) and the runoff in Georgia's 6th district (June 20) are widely seen as proxy readings on how much electoral trouble the Republican party is in -- and a bellwether for what may happen in the 2018 midterms.
In GA-06 (my home district and the Democratic candidate is a friend of my grandson), the previous poll I saw had Jon Ossoff (D) leading Karen Handel (R) by 47% to 45%, well within the margin of error.
Yesterday, tv station 11Alive released the results of a poll done for them by Survey USA, which showed this:
Ossoff 51%
Handel 44%
It's risky to compare but, for what it's worth it, this is good news for the Democrat Ossoff. The margin of error is 4.3%, so this 7% lead clearly exceeds that. And the movement since the last poll is all in Ossoff's direction: up from 47% to 51% while Handel lost a point: 45% and 44%. The undecided vote is 6% -- even if it all went to Handel, Ossoff would still win.
Now that obviously is putting too much faith in one poll and it really means not very much. In runoffs, it comes down to voter turn-out. But it's good to be on the "increasing the lead" side rather than otherwise.
Another encouraging factor is that Trump and the hapless Republicans in Congress are not likely to give voters anything much to cheer about in the next few weeks. Besides, the despicable, negative smear ads they're running against Jon don't seem to be working.
Ralph
PS: Two days ago saw two state legislative seats flip from red to blue. One was in New Hampshire, where a Democrat won 52% to 48%; and one in New York, with a Democratic win by 52% to 44%. Trump won both districts in November. The needles moved to the left by 11 points in NH and by 39 points in NY. And today, Thursday, May 25th, we have the Montana congressional race, which is difficult to predict. If it flips, that will signal that Republicans are in serious trouble with the electorate.
PPS: BREAKING NEWS: I wrote the above just a few hours ago, and then I turned on the TV and began to hear the story out of Montana. The Republican candidate (Greg Gianforte) physically assaulted a reporter, Ben Jacobs of The Guardian, who had simply asked him a question about the CBO scoring of the health care bill. I heard the audio recording of the incident. Within seconds after Jacobs asked the question, and a couple of verbal back and forths, Gianforte begins yelling "Get the hell out of here!!!" And then immediately you hear sounds of a scuffle.
A witness who was part of a Fox News TV crew in the room said the reporter was not being aggressive (as Gianforte's campaign claimed in trying to blame it all on him), and she described Gianforte's attack as "vicious," as he grabbed Jacobs around the neck with both hands, threw him to the floor, and began punching him.
An investigation by the sheriff's office is ongoing. Voting begins at 7 AM Thursday, Montana time. Unfortunately, a lot of voters have already cast their ballots in early voting, which is exactly why I have mixed feelings about that whole practice of early voting.
Ralph
Thursday, May 25, 2017
Wednesday, May 24, 2017
Another day, another shoe drops in the Trump-Russia scandal
Former CIA Director John Brennan, testifying yesterday for the House Intelligence Committee hearing, said that Russia "brazenly interfered" in the 2016 presidential election in an effort to help Trump win.
He also testified that there had been "active contact" between Russian government officials and members of the Trump campaign as far back as last summer. He said that he did not know whether the contacts were related to the Russians' attempt to influence the election, but they were worrisome enough for him to refer the matter to the FBI for investigation.
Brennan was careful to avoid charging that the Trump team colluded, and he acknowledged that they may not have known that the Russians were spies. But it does seem likely, from what he said, that at least the Russians were attempting to use the Trump associates in their efforts to interfere with the election.
Here's the quote that will be long-remembered: "Frequently, people who go along a treasonous path do not know they are on a treasonous path until it is a bit too late," Brennan said.
He was speaking generally and hypothetically, not accusing anyone of treason. But his testimony revealed that concerns in our government about possible cooperation between Russia and the Trump campaign had been deeper than previously known and involved multiple contacts.
This is startling, even in light of what we've heard before. Add up all we know -- and then realize that people like Brennan still know even more than they're telling us in open testimony. Somebody knows what those FISA-warrant tapes on Carter Page show. And Flynn's talks with the Russian ambassador. And Kushner, the presumptive "person of interest currently in the White House." No wonder Trump wants to shut down the investigation. But it's too late for that now.
Ralph
He also testified that there had been "active contact" between Russian government officials and members of the Trump campaign as far back as last summer. He said that he did not know whether the contacts were related to the Russians' attempt to influence the election, but they were worrisome enough for him to refer the matter to the FBI for investigation.
Brennan was careful to avoid charging that the Trump team colluded, and he acknowledged that they may not have known that the Russians were spies. But it does seem likely, from what he said, that at least the Russians were attempting to use the Trump associates in their efforts to interfere with the election.
Here's the quote that will be long-remembered: "Frequently, people who go along a treasonous path do not know they are on a treasonous path until it is a bit too late," Brennan said.
He was speaking generally and hypothetically, not accusing anyone of treason. But his testimony revealed that concerns in our government about possible cooperation between Russia and the Trump campaign had been deeper than previously known and involved multiple contacts.
This is startling, even in light of what we've heard before. Add up all we know -- and then realize that people like Brennan still know even more than they're telling us in open testimony. Somebody knows what those FISA-warrant tapes on Carter Page show. And Flynn's talks with the Russian ambassador. And Kushner, the presumptive "person of interest currently in the White House." No wonder Trump wants to shut down the investigation. But it's too late for that now.
Ralph
Bombing suspect was born in England -- and what that means.
Manchester, England police identified as the suspect in the post-concert arena bombing 22 year old Salman Abedi. He was born in England to parents who came from Libya. in 1994. Abedi, who also died in the suicide bombing, was known to British authorities, but was apparently not under active surveillance.
It's important to keep in mind that he was a native-born English citizen when anti-immigrant propagandists try to use this bombing to bolster their arguments for closing borders and banning refugees.
There is a severe problem with the radicalization of disillusioned young men, and increasingly young women, who then ally with terrorists groups. Sometimes this includes formally joining them abroad; but more often it is an informal solidarity, performing individual acts of terror without ever leaving their homelands in the West.
The problem is not immigration. More often it seems to be the second generation, the children of those who immigrated to live in the West. We should wonder about the meaning of that pattern.
It is a much more complex socio-economic problem which a radical ideology appeals to with "solutions" that include violence. Our counter efforts should address those socio-economic issues, which includes the status of Muslims in world culture. When our leaders were saying in 2001 that we have to take action against Afghanistan for the 9/11 attack -- my thought was: instead of dropping bombs on them, we should drop food, medical supplies, building materials, and books.
The problem is now 16 years worse. But, still, the long range answer is not killing but addressing underlying causes. I believe it's not religious ideology as much as it is socio-economic. Not so much good vs evil but have vs have-not.
To see this, look no further than Israel and Palestine, a constant reminder throughout the Islamic world of the superior powers they are up against. Terrorism is the weapon of those who lack power and opportunity.
No, I am not condoning violence. And I am not denying that some Islamists emphasize teachings by some of their religious leaders to justify "slaying infidels" and opposing modern, Western values and customs. But I hope to understand why some resort to violence and not just reduce it all to "Evil vs Good."
Ralph
It's important to keep in mind that he was a native-born English citizen when anti-immigrant propagandists try to use this bombing to bolster their arguments for closing borders and banning refugees.
There is a severe problem with the radicalization of disillusioned young men, and increasingly young women, who then ally with terrorists groups. Sometimes this includes formally joining them abroad; but more often it is an informal solidarity, performing individual acts of terror without ever leaving their homelands in the West.
The problem is not immigration. More often it seems to be the second generation, the children of those who immigrated to live in the West. We should wonder about the meaning of that pattern.
It is a much more complex socio-economic problem which a radical ideology appeals to with "solutions" that include violence. Our counter efforts should address those socio-economic issues, which includes the status of Muslims in world culture. When our leaders were saying in 2001 that we have to take action against Afghanistan for the 9/11 attack -- my thought was: instead of dropping bombs on them, we should drop food, medical supplies, building materials, and books.
The problem is now 16 years worse. But, still, the long range answer is not killing but addressing underlying causes. I believe it's not religious ideology as much as it is socio-economic. Not so much good vs evil but have vs have-not.
To see this, look no further than Israel and Palestine, a constant reminder throughout the Islamic world of the superior powers they are up against. Terrorism is the weapon of those who lack power and opportunity.
No, I am not condoning violence. And I am not denying that some Islamists emphasize teachings by some of their religious leaders to justify "slaying infidels" and opposing modern, Western values and customs. But I hope to understand why some resort to violence and not just reduce it all to "Evil vs Good."
Ralph
Tuesday, May 23, 2017
Tuesday breaking news
Four big stories broke in the news yesterday that are unrelated to anything happening during the trip of the US chief executive who is travelling in the Middle East and Europe this week.
1. Gen. Michael Flynn has told the Senate Intelligence Committee that he will be taking the 5th amendment in any testimony required by them, and thus he will also not be releasing the documents they requested. [More in the blog post just below this one].
2. Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-MD), the ranking Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, has evidence that Gen. Michael Flynn lied, during his 2016 security clearance renewal process, about his payment for going to Russia to give a speech at a celebratory dinner for RT, the Russian propaganda TV station. Pictures of Flynn sitting next to Putin at the dinner have been widely circulated. Flynn has claimed that he was paid by US companies; but it is clear now that the money originated from the Russian government. Lying to federal investigators carries a sentence of up to five years in prison. In addition, Flynn violated regulations that require a retired general to get permission for such travel in advance.
3. The U.S. Supreme Court gave its decision in the North Carolina voting rights case. They found that the state violated the rights of African-American voters in redrawing district lines that packed them into certain districts to dilute their political power. In other words, North Carolina is guilty of gerrymandering.
4. Notes made contemporaneously say that back in March the president asked two of our highest intelligence officials, Daniel Coats, the Director of National Intelligence, and Adm. Michael Rogers, Director of the National Security Agency -- both appointed by Trump and new to their jobs -- to push back against the FBI's investigation into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russian government.
Information obtained by the Washington Post quotes a source in the DNI office as saying that the president asked, "Can we ask him (Comey) to shut down the investigation? Are you able to assist in this matter?" Coats and Rogers refused to comply with the request, which they both considered inappropriate, according to this memo. The WaPo article concludes that: "The new revelations add to a growing body of evidence that the White House sought to co-opt and then undermine Comey before he fired him."
It's all beginning to add up to a cover-up and obstruction of justice, folks. Is there any other possible explanation other than to hide something?
Ralph
1. Gen. Michael Flynn has told the Senate Intelligence Committee that he will be taking the 5th amendment in any testimony required by them, and thus he will also not be releasing the documents they requested. [More in the blog post just below this one].
2. Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-MD), the ranking Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, has evidence that Gen. Michael Flynn lied, during his 2016 security clearance renewal process, about his payment for going to Russia to give a speech at a celebratory dinner for RT, the Russian propaganda TV station. Pictures of Flynn sitting next to Putin at the dinner have been widely circulated. Flynn has claimed that he was paid by US companies; but it is clear now that the money originated from the Russian government. Lying to federal investigators carries a sentence of up to five years in prison. In addition, Flynn violated regulations that require a retired general to get permission for such travel in advance.
3. The U.S. Supreme Court gave its decision in the North Carolina voting rights case. They found that the state violated the rights of African-American voters in redrawing district lines that packed them into certain districts to dilute their political power. In other words, North Carolina is guilty of gerrymandering.
4. Notes made contemporaneously say that back in March the president asked two of our highest intelligence officials, Daniel Coats, the Director of National Intelligence, and Adm. Michael Rogers, Director of the National Security Agency -- both appointed by Trump and new to their jobs -- to push back against the FBI's investigation into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russian government.
Information obtained by the Washington Post quotes a source in the DNI office as saying that the president asked, "Can we ask him (Comey) to shut down the investigation? Are you able to assist in this matter?" Coats and Rogers refused to comply with the request, which they both considered inappropriate, according to this memo. The WaPo article concludes that: "The new revelations add to a growing body of evidence that the White House sought to co-opt and then undermine Comey before he fired him."
It's all beginning to add up to a cover-up and obstruction of justice, folks. Is there any other possible explanation other than to hide something?
Ralph
Senate IntelCom: Flynn takes the 5th. Manafort cooperates.
The Senate Intelligence Committee, investigating the Russian influence in our 2016 election, has requested related documents from Michael Flynn, Paul Manafort, Carter Page, and Roger Stone. So far, here's they've got.
Paul Manafort has sent them a bunch of documents, which he says are the ones related to the subject they asked about. The Committee has not yet had time to go through them to form its own opinion.
Michael Flynn responded by saying that he plans to take the 5th amendment against self-incrimination, in the event he is called to testify before the committee. The reason he gave is that the "public frenzy" surrounding this investigation is such that he feels Democrats are putting pressure on the committee to call him to testify. Because of this, he will not supply documents which might also come under his right to refuse due to self-incrimination.
As expected, Carter Page's response was amusing. What is it with this guy? He's always smirking and acting as if the whole thing is a joke. His reply to the committee was essentially "Go f--k yourself." Not in those words, of course. What he said was this (I'm paraphrasing it): Look, you guys got a FISA warrant and wire-tapped me; so you obviously know everything about me already. I have nothing further to give you.
Then there is Roger Stone. If there is anyone more of a spotlight chaser than The-One-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named, it's Roger. A long-time Republican operative who works behind the scenes, Stone was loosely associated with the TOWSNBN's campaign early on, but never in an official way. He's sort of a hanger-on, but sometimes useful because he knows all the dirty political tricks.
He predicted the hacking of the email of Hillary Clinton's campaign chair John Podesta before it happened, which raised the question of what he knew and what connections he had. Long answer to finally say: Roger Stone has not only given the committee some documents but voluntarily and enthusiastically declared his readiness to testify -- and the more TV cameras the better (again, I'm paraphrasing); but that's the impression Roger Stone evokes.
So that's where we are on documents. There was a late news release (always the 5:00 pm news drop that Rachel Maddow talks about) that's related to this subject. The Associated Press says that "a top House Democrat" has said that there is now evidence that Mike Flynn lied to US security clearance investigators about his payments from foreign sources.
Flynn will likely face a lot of charges. Probably the Senate Intelligence Committee is the least of his worries right now. They could, of course, try to hold him in contempt for refusing to turn over documents, but with all the other investigations of him in the works, including the FBI, my guess is that they won't -- at least not right now.
Ralph
Paul Manafort has sent them a bunch of documents, which he says are the ones related to the subject they asked about. The Committee has not yet had time to go through them to form its own opinion.
Michael Flynn responded by saying that he plans to take the 5th amendment against self-incrimination, in the event he is called to testify before the committee. The reason he gave is that the "public frenzy" surrounding this investigation is such that he feels Democrats are putting pressure on the committee to call him to testify. Because of this, he will not supply documents which might also come under his right to refuse due to self-incrimination.
As expected, Carter Page's response was amusing. What is it with this guy? He's always smirking and acting as if the whole thing is a joke. His reply to the committee was essentially "Go f--k yourself." Not in those words, of course. What he said was this (I'm paraphrasing it): Look, you guys got a FISA warrant and wire-tapped me; so you obviously know everything about me already. I have nothing further to give you.
Then there is Roger Stone. If there is anyone more of a spotlight chaser than The-One-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named, it's Roger. A long-time Republican operative who works behind the scenes, Stone was loosely associated with the TOWSNBN's campaign early on, but never in an official way. He's sort of a hanger-on, but sometimes useful because he knows all the dirty political tricks.
He predicted the hacking of the email of Hillary Clinton's campaign chair John Podesta before it happened, which raised the question of what he knew and what connections he had. Long answer to finally say: Roger Stone has not only given the committee some documents but voluntarily and enthusiastically declared his readiness to testify -- and the more TV cameras the better (again, I'm paraphrasing); but that's the impression Roger Stone evokes.
So that's where we are on documents. There was a late news release (always the 5:00 pm news drop that Rachel Maddow talks about) that's related to this subject. The Associated Press says that "a top House Democrat" has said that there is now evidence that Mike Flynn lied to US security clearance investigators about his payments from foreign sources.
Flynn will likely face a lot of charges. Probably the Senate Intelligence Committee is the least of his worries right now. They could, of course, try to hold him in contempt for refusing to turn over documents, but with all the other investigations of him in the works, including the FBI, my guess is that they won't -- at least not right now.
Ralph
Monday, May 22, 2017
Today's blog is not about Donald Trump -- a blessed respite during his absence.
Believe it or not, other things than Trump are happening in the world. Trump sucks up all the oxygen and the attention, but occasionally some other story peeps through. Yesterday, we looked at the presidential election in Iran. Today, here are a few more varied news stories.
1. FoxNews creator and disgraced CEO Roger Ailes died at age 77 following a fall in his home and a resulting brain injury. As the New York Times' newest columnist and resident conservative Bret Stephens put it: ". . . nobody did more than Ailes to broaden the reach of conservative ideas . . . . Except in this respect: If Ailes broadened, he also debased. The man, who did so much to engineer the ascendancy of conservative media, paved the way to its moral and intellectual decline -- much as his own accumulation of vast corporate power created openings for his abuse of it."
2. North Korea fired yet another ballistic missile into the waters off its east coast. South Korea says this interferes with hopes for peace under its new president.
3. About one-third (82) of the Nigerian school girls that were kidnapped by Boko Haram terrorists in 2014 have been reunited with their families. The government
is providing a rehabilitation program for the girls, who are now 18 to 21 years old.
4. The dire economic situation in Venezuela continues; many people lack even basic subsistence food. Street protests are continuous and growing in urgency and violence.
5. Sweden has dismissed the rape charges against Julian Assange, the Wikileaks guy who has spent the last five years in the Ecuardorian embassy in London, where he sought asylum to avoid those very charges, which he claims are made up. Sweden is not conceding, just accepting the stalemate. Assange still faces other charges if he leaves the embassy: from England, for failing to appear in court; and then he would face extradition to the US, where he is under investigation regarding the classified documents released on Wikileaks.
6. The girls' soccer team AEM Lleida in Spain has won the league championship in an otherwise all-male, junior division. Yeah! You go, girls.
7. Anti-LGBTQ Republican legislators in Texas are stealthily introducing amendments to must-pass legislation, in the late days of the session, that would allow doctors, nurses, and pharmacists to discriminate in providing services that are contrary to their own personal religious beliefs. In contrast, Oregon has passed a provision for a third option for sex on drivers licenses and other state issued ID's. One can opt for "male," "female," or "non-binary." The only objection from any legislators was over the cost of reprogramming, not the idea itself.
8. Hillary Clinton's long-time aide, Huma Abedin, has filed for divorce from disgraced husband Anthony Weiner, who has recently pleaded guilty to transferring obscene material to a minor. His sentence, which could include years in jail, will be decided in September.
9. Nearly 150 students and family members walked out when Vice President Mike Pence began his commencement address at Notre Dame University. One wore a rainbow-colored cape, others had on rainbow colors -- in protest of the former Indiana governor's anti-gay policies and his infamous signing of the "religious freedom" (aka anti-gay discrimination) bill that was quickly modified when cancellations began to flood in from scheduled NCAA and concert events and from corporate and tourist sectors.
10. Pippa Middleton, sister to Catherine, Duchess of Cambridge and sister-in-law to Prince William, was married on Sunday to hedge fund manager James Matthews. Pippa's niece Princess Charlotte and nephew Prince George were in the wedding party. Prince Harry and some other royal family members also attended. It wasn't quite a royal wedding, but plenty of royal relatives in attendance made it seem so. Pippa had made quite a hit with the media when she was the very photogenic younger sister at the Royal Wedding of William and Kate.
Check out the photo below of the future Queen Catherine performing bridesmaid duties for her sister. Shortly before, she had been shepherding Princess Charlotte and Prince George into their places as flower girl and pageboy.
photo by Samir Hussein, via Getty Images
See, there's lots of news, even when Himself is away.
Ralph
1. FoxNews creator and disgraced CEO Roger Ailes died at age 77 following a fall in his home and a resulting brain injury. As the New York Times' newest columnist and resident conservative Bret Stephens put it: ". . . nobody did more than Ailes to broaden the reach of conservative ideas . . . . Except in this respect: If Ailes broadened, he also debased. The man, who did so much to engineer the ascendancy of conservative media, paved the way to its moral and intellectual decline -- much as his own accumulation of vast corporate power created openings for his abuse of it."
2. North Korea fired yet another ballistic missile into the waters off its east coast. South Korea says this interferes with hopes for peace under its new president.
3. About one-third (82) of the Nigerian school girls that were kidnapped by Boko Haram terrorists in 2014 have been reunited with their families. The government
is providing a rehabilitation program for the girls, who are now 18 to 21 years old.
4. The dire economic situation in Venezuela continues; many people lack even basic subsistence food. Street protests are continuous and growing in urgency and violence.
5. Sweden has dismissed the rape charges against Julian Assange, the Wikileaks guy who has spent the last five years in the Ecuardorian embassy in London, where he sought asylum to avoid those very charges, which he claims are made up. Sweden is not conceding, just accepting the stalemate. Assange still faces other charges if he leaves the embassy: from England, for failing to appear in court; and then he would face extradition to the US, where he is under investigation regarding the classified documents released on Wikileaks.
6. The girls' soccer team AEM Lleida in Spain has won the league championship in an otherwise all-male, junior division. Yeah! You go, girls.
7. Anti-LGBTQ Republican legislators in Texas are stealthily introducing amendments to must-pass legislation, in the late days of the session, that would allow doctors, nurses, and pharmacists to discriminate in providing services that are contrary to their own personal religious beliefs. In contrast, Oregon has passed a provision for a third option for sex on drivers licenses and other state issued ID's. One can opt for "male," "female," or "non-binary." The only objection from any legislators was over the cost of reprogramming, not the idea itself.
8. Hillary Clinton's long-time aide, Huma Abedin, has filed for divorce from disgraced husband Anthony Weiner, who has recently pleaded guilty to transferring obscene material to a minor. His sentence, which could include years in jail, will be decided in September.
9. Nearly 150 students and family members walked out when Vice President Mike Pence began his commencement address at Notre Dame University. One wore a rainbow-colored cape, others had on rainbow colors -- in protest of the former Indiana governor's anti-gay policies and his infamous signing of the "religious freedom" (aka anti-gay discrimination) bill that was quickly modified when cancellations began to flood in from scheduled NCAA and concert events and from corporate and tourist sectors.
10. Pippa Middleton, sister to Catherine, Duchess of Cambridge and sister-in-law to Prince William, was married on Sunday to hedge fund manager James Matthews. Pippa's niece Princess Charlotte and nephew Prince George were in the wedding party. Prince Harry and some other royal family members also attended. It wasn't quite a royal wedding, but plenty of royal relatives in attendance made it seem so. Pippa had made quite a hit with the media when she was the very photogenic younger sister at the Royal Wedding of William and Kate.
Check out the photo below of the future Queen Catherine performing bridesmaid duties for her sister. Shortly before, she had been shepherding Princess Charlotte and Prince George into their places as flower girl and pageboy.
photo by Samir Hussein, via Getty Images
See, there's lots of news, even when Himself is away.
Ralph
Sunday, May 21, 2017
Moderate Iranian president re-elected
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani
photo: FARS News Agency
Following Brexit and the rising rightward tilt in European politics, and then the election of Donald Trump, the world seemed to be spinning away from democratic ideals. Then came France's unexpectedly large majority for Emmanuel Macron's election as president over the hard right Marine Le Pen. Perhaps the rightward tide has reversed, or at least stalled.
Iran held it's presidential election this week and the moderate, reformist President Hassan Rouhani easily won re-election with 57% to of the vote to 38% for the hard-line, conservative cleric. This is being read as support for internal reform, as well as for fruitful exchange with the outside world. It also represents a setback for the powerful Iranian Royal Guards.
According to CNN's report, Rouhani's first term "was marked by an emergent international outreach." He was a "key architect" of the 2015 nuclear deal, as he skillfully balanced the multi-national agreement negotiations despite the public opposition of the Iranian Supreme Leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Of course, in Iran's theocracy, the Supreme Leader still has ultimate control; and that limits how much Rouhani can accomplish. But the fact that he has survived one full term, and got an impressive majority in his re-election bid, suggests that his political skills and delicate management of the relationship with the clerics may let him and his supporters continue to make progressive changes.
This does not change the geopolitical balances, however. Iran still sides with Russia in supporting Assad in Syria, and they are still assumed to be responsible for terrorist activities in the region. It's not clear how much control Rouhani has over any of that -- or whether that's part of his trade-off with the right-wing that allow him to achieve domestic progress.
Drawing a circle around all that and looking just at who is in the US's best interest to be president of Iran, no doubt it's Rouhani. Let's hope that Donald Trump lets up on his criticism of the nuclear deal and doesn't mess that up. He seems bent on building up the Saudis as opponents of Iran, his bug-a-boo enemy in the Middle East. And demonizing Iran, rather than welcoming the moderating influence of leaders like Rouhani.
Trump is currently in Saudi Arabia, in a game of mutual courtship and business deals with his kind of people -- billionaires, who don't let human rights interfere with their exercise of power. He's just signed a $110 billion deal to sell them military hardware, plus the possibility of up to another $200 billion in "other investments."
Trump is hailing all this as "jobs, jobs, jobs" for Americans. And, on top of that, the King ceremoniously gave him a medal, after honoring him by welcoming him at the foot of the stairs of Air Force One. There are billboard sized portraits of Trump all over Riyadh, and he's being treated like a king. It must be a bit of balm for his wounded ego.
He'd better soak it all up. Trouble will be waiting for him when he gets home.
Ralph
photo: FARS News Agency
Following Brexit and the rising rightward tilt in European politics, and then the election of Donald Trump, the world seemed to be spinning away from democratic ideals. Then came France's unexpectedly large majority for Emmanuel Macron's election as president over the hard right Marine Le Pen. Perhaps the rightward tide has reversed, or at least stalled.
Iran held it's presidential election this week and the moderate, reformist President Hassan Rouhani easily won re-election with 57% to of the vote to 38% for the hard-line, conservative cleric. This is being read as support for internal reform, as well as for fruitful exchange with the outside world. It also represents a setback for the powerful Iranian Royal Guards.
According to CNN's report, Rouhani's first term "was marked by an emergent international outreach." He was a "key architect" of the 2015 nuclear deal, as he skillfully balanced the multi-national agreement negotiations despite the public opposition of the Iranian Supreme Leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Of course, in Iran's theocracy, the Supreme Leader still has ultimate control; and that limits how much Rouhani can accomplish. But the fact that he has survived one full term, and got an impressive majority in his re-election bid, suggests that his political skills and delicate management of the relationship with the clerics may let him and his supporters continue to make progressive changes.
This does not change the geopolitical balances, however. Iran still sides with Russia in supporting Assad in Syria, and they are still assumed to be responsible for terrorist activities in the region. It's not clear how much control Rouhani has over any of that -- or whether that's part of his trade-off with the right-wing that allow him to achieve domestic progress.
Drawing a circle around all that and looking just at who is in the US's best interest to be president of Iran, no doubt it's Rouhani. Let's hope that Donald Trump lets up on his criticism of the nuclear deal and doesn't mess that up. He seems bent on building up the Saudis as opponents of Iran, his bug-a-boo enemy in the Middle East. And demonizing Iran, rather than welcoming the moderating influence of leaders like Rouhani.
Trump is currently in Saudi Arabia, in a game of mutual courtship and business deals with his kind of people -- billionaires, who don't let human rights interfere with their exercise of power. He's just signed a $110 billion deal to sell them military hardware, plus the possibility of up to another $200 billion in "other investments."
Trump is hailing all this as "jobs, jobs, jobs" for Americans. And, on top of that, the King ceremoniously gave him a medal, after honoring him by welcoming him at the foot of the stairs of Air Force One. There are billboard sized portraits of Trump all over Riyadh, and he's being treated like a king. It must be a bit of balm for his wounded ego.
He'd better soak it all up. Trouble will be waiting for him when he gets home.
Ralph
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