Washington Post reporters have learned that the Russian ambassador told officials in Moscow that Jared Kushner had asked him to help the Trump transition team set up a secret, backdoor line of communication with the Kremlin using Russian diplomatic channels so that it could not be detected by official US surveillance agencies. Michael Flynn was also in the meeting, which occurred on Dec 1st or 2nd of 2016 at Trump Tower. Ambassador Kislyak and the Kremlin supposedly denied Kushner's request, realizing that it would pose security risks for them. On the other hand, if it had been set up, would we know . . . ?
This is blockbusting: The Trump team wanted to speak with the Kremlin -- a foreign adversary -- in such a way that could not be detected by our own security forces, i.e. the FBI, the CIA, National Security. Some are urging caution, suggesting that Kushner may have been acting out of naivete. But Gen. Flynn was not naive, having been head of the intelligence arm of the Pentagon.
Is there any doubt that Trump was in on this? Stay tuned.
Saturday, May 27, 2017
Republican assailant still won, but margin was 14 points less than Trump's win
Despite the Montana Republican candidate's physical assault against a Guardian newspaper reporter, Greg Gianforte wound up winning anyway by 50% to 44%. Compare that 6% difference with Trump's winning margin of 20% last November.
An estimated two-thirds of voters had already cast their ballots in early voting before the incident occurred. There are anecdotal accounts of people calling in to ask if they could change their vote. The answer was no.
Breakdown of votes in Yellowstone County (the city of Billings): Gianforte won the early vote by 20 points and the same day vote by 10 points. And 90% of the total votes in that county were early votes. Trying to predict how that might extrapolate statewide is only speculative, especially since we have no data to compare demographics of early voters and same-day voters. But it strongly suggests a robust effect of news of the assault, which polls showed most voters had heard about, perhaps enough to have flipped the results if there had not been early voting.
This extraordinary rage attack by a Republican candidate against a member of the media is being widely discussed. Opinions range, from supporters saying the reporter "had it coming," to others who take a wider view of the "coarsening" of political discourse in the Trump era.
Rep. Mark Sanford, a South Carolina Republican, said:
He'll have plenty of opportunities in Washington to be besieged by reporters. Now the whole world will be watching him. And he will have to meet the voters again to ask for a full term in the 2018 election.
Ralph
An estimated two-thirds of voters had already cast their ballots in early voting before the incident occurred. There are anecdotal accounts of people calling in to ask if they could change their vote. The answer was no.
Breakdown of votes in Yellowstone County (the city of Billings): Gianforte won the early vote by 20 points and the same day vote by 10 points. And 90% of the total votes in that county were early votes. Trying to predict how that might extrapolate statewide is only speculative, especially since we have no data to compare demographics of early voters and same-day voters. But it strongly suggests a robust effect of news of the assault, which polls showed most voters had heard about, perhaps enough to have flipped the results if there had not been early voting.
This extraordinary rage attack by a Republican candidate against a member of the media is being widely discussed. Opinions range, from supporters saying the reporter "had it coming," to others who take a wider view of the "coarsening" of political discourse in the Trump era.
Rep. Mark Sanford, a South Carolina Republican, said:
“Respectfully, I’d submit that the president has unearthed some demons. . . . I’ve talked to a number of people about it back home. They say, ‘Well, look, if the president can say whatever, why can’t I say whatever?’ He’s given them license. . . . People feel like, if the president of the United States can say anything to anybody at any time, then I guess I can too. And that is a very dangerous phenomenon.”Several people have noted that Gianforte is known for having a thin skin and for easily lashing back. But let's give him credit for a genuine apology, unlike the "if anyone was offended" kind of non-apology from so many politicians. Here's what Gianforte said, as reported by The Hill:
"Last night, I made a mistake and I took an action that I can't take back - and I'm not proud of what happened. . . . I should not have responded in the way that I did and for that I'm sorry. I should not have treated that reporter that way and for that, I am sorry, Mr. Ben Jacobs."I don't know whether this was only a press release or whether he actually spoke with Ben Jacobs and apologized personally. Of course, I would rather he had acknowledged his problem with anger management and dropped out of the race.
He'll have plenty of opportunities in Washington to be besieged by reporters. Now the whole world will be watching him. And he will have to meet the voters again to ask for a full term in the 2018 election.
Ralph
Montana margin = a "win" for Democrats
This is not just spin. First, Montana is considered a red state in recent political cycles. They have sometimes elected Democrats, especially to the U.S. Senate.
Democrat Jon Tester has been one of their senators since 2007; and Max Baucus began his senate career in 1978 and served until his retirement in 2014. His seat is currently held by a Republican, but Montana has had other distinguished Democrats. Sen. Mike Mansfield, from 1953 to 1977, was Senate Majority Leader for the last 16 years.
So, Montana has had its notable streaks of blue among the red. However, the relevant number in this current analysis is that Donald Trump carried the state easily last November with a 20% margin.
Thus, Greg Gianforte's 6% margin of victory (assault aside) follows what we saw in Kansas and adds to the sense of an important "win" for Democrats. And sets the stage for an actual victory in GA-06 that will send Demoract Jon Ossoff to take Tom Price's congressional seat in Washington. Ossoff was leading in the most recent poll, 51% to 44%.
Journalist Matthew Yglesias, writing for Vox News, said that it "fundamentally represents bad news for the GOP." He quotes from the Cook Political Report to explain that "the GOP underperformed badly in Montana, after a similar underperformance in the special election for Kansas's Fourth Congressional District."
Yglesias continues: "If Republicans are winning in places like Montana by just 7 percentage points, [the final count was actually 6%] then they are in extreme peril of losing their House majority in 2018."
GA-06 is a much more winnable district for Democrats. Trump won it by only 1%, while he won Montana by 20%. So let's have a good win here and set it up to flip the House in 2018.
Ralph
Democrat Jon Tester has been one of their senators since 2007; and Max Baucus began his senate career in 1978 and served until his retirement in 2014. His seat is currently held by a Republican, but Montana has had other distinguished Democrats. Sen. Mike Mansfield, from 1953 to 1977, was Senate Majority Leader for the last 16 years.
So, Montana has had its notable streaks of blue among the red. However, the relevant number in this current analysis is that Donald Trump carried the state easily last November with a 20% margin.
Thus, Greg Gianforte's 6% margin of victory (assault aside) follows what we saw in Kansas and adds to the sense of an important "win" for Democrats. And sets the stage for an actual victory in GA-06 that will send Demoract Jon Ossoff to take Tom Price's congressional seat in Washington. Ossoff was leading in the most recent poll, 51% to 44%.
Journalist Matthew Yglesias, writing for Vox News, said that it "fundamentally represents bad news for the GOP." He quotes from the Cook Political Report to explain that "the GOP underperformed badly in Montana, after a similar underperformance in the special election for Kansas's Fourth Congressional District."
Yglesias continues: "If Republicans are winning in places like Montana by just 7 percentage points, [the final count was actually 6%] then they are in extreme peril of losing their House majority in 2018."
GA-06 is a much more winnable district for Democrats. Trump won it by only 1%, while he won Montana by 20%. So let's have a good win here and set it up to flip the House in 2018.
Ralph
Friday, May 26, 2017
Another defeat for Trump's travel ban
By a 10 to 3 decision, the full 4th Circuit Court of Appeals in Virginia refused the Trump administration's appeal to reinstate his travel ban, as revised after the first one was rejected by the courts. The majority was "unconvinced" that it had more to do with national security than that it was a de facto Muslim ban.
In arriving at this decision, it seemed evident from the oral arguments that the court was taking seriously the extra-judicial statements made by Trump and his associates as indication of the real motives.
Civics 101, Mr. President.
In arriving at this decision, it seemed evident from the oral arguments that the court was taking seriously the extra-judicial statements made by Trump and his associates as indication of the real motives.
Civics 101, Mr. President.
Update: Jared Kushner's "Russia problem"
Crowded out by more pressing news was an article on Vox news site more than a week ago by Dara Lind that analyzed Jared Kushner's Russia problem.
The youthful scion of a large real estate empire in New Jersey, who married the daughter of the New York real estate phenomenon Donald Trump, Jared Kushner's youthful, quiet good looks seems to go along with the image created by his observant, Orthodox Jewish practice: a nice, devoted, young man.
We're learning that there's a lot more to Jared than that image. One factor is his habit of shunning the spotlight. I am a pretty close observer of political news, and I have never heard Jared speak. I don't only mean "give a speech." I have never heard the sound of his voice. He apparently does not engage at all with TV reporters. So let's see what we can learn from Dara Lind's article.
Jared and Ivanka moved to Washington, along with their children, into a house in a nearby neighborhood to where the Obamas now live. So they're putting down roots. And both of them now have official positions in the Trump administration, albeit unpaid advisers. At first, I thought this was probably a good idea, based on my assumption that, if anyone could put some limits on Donald Trump, it would be these two, especially Ivanka.
But, as Lind points out: "What if . . . Jared is not a panacea for the chaotic White House, but one of its biggest problems? . . . Kushner hasn't been the 'adult in the room' urging caution and scrupulousness. To the contrary, he's been urging aggression and retaliation."
Contrary to expectations that he would have warned Trump not to fire FBI Director Comey, the New York Times has reported that he was supportive of, perhaps even encouraged, that decision. But, now that Robert Mueller has been appointed as special counselor to take over the FBI investigation, Jared is said to be the one urging counter-attack, with others taking the role of the calming influence.
The fact that one of Mueller's law firm colleagues has represented Jared in other cases seems to be a major concern of Jared's, who pushed for evoking the ethics rule that would prohibit a special counsel whose law firm has represented a person being investigated. The Justice Department has dispensed with that by granting a waiver to Mueller, given that he had no participation in Jared's case that was handled by other lawyers at his firm.
So what is Kushner so worried about? Lind points out that both Jared and Ivanka have been especially close to Michael Flynn; they were his champions in getting the appointment as National Security Adviser, saying that the family "owed" it to him to reward his loyalty during the campaign. That, in itself, is a little suspicious. National Security Adviser is perhaps the most sensitive post in a modern presidency. It is not a gold watch to be handed out as a reward for faithful service.
Jared was involved, along with Flynn, in at least one meeting with the Russian ambassador, as well as subsequent meetings with Russian officials on his own, including the head of a Russian bank that is personally controlled by Putin, who chose as the man to head it a former Russian spy. That's who Jared had the meeting with.
Kushner did not disclose any of those meetings when he applied for -- and got -- security clearance. That lack of disclosure put him on the radar of the Senate Intelligence Committee. Steve Bannon reportedly is deeply concerned about this, calling it "a disaster waiting to happen." Lind's reporting suggests that this might be one of the causes of the notorious conflict between Kushner and Bannon that was unsettling the inner circle of the Trump administration.
Another leak has just revealed a conversation among Russian officials last summer about how to influence a president Trump through his advisers, and they seemed most interested in Flynn and Manafort at that time. This doesn't prove that they followed through on it; but it does show that they were thinking about it.
We also know now, from the testimony of former CIA Director John Brennan, the pattern in which Russians cultivate "assets" who then become conduits for them, sometimes wittingly through coercion, and sometimes unwittingly. According to some guest on MSNBC Wednesday night, whose name escapes me, "it always comes down to need or greed" on the part of the prospective asset. In Trump's case, it could have been both. He needed money; he has always been greedy for MORE of anything material. They could easily have satisfied his need by arranging for him to get money from their nefarious sources.
Why are we ignoring the distinct possibility that Donald Trump may be co-opted by the Russians? Here's how it could be. After his bankruptcies and a downturn in the real estate market, Donald Trump was in dire need of money. But he had ruined his credit standing in New York by not paying his loans. He turned instead to borrow huge amounts from Deutschebank, which is currently having to pay large fines for involvement in money-laundering. Real estate development is one of the two most used places to clean up money through "investing" and reselling. Trump could have participated with them in this -- and then he could be being blackmailed at this very moment.
There is also the Russian, state-controlled bank, whose president Jared Kushner had an unreported meeting with in New York. This is the same president that was hand-picked to run the bank by Putin, who uses this bank essentially as his slush fund for financing things like the Ukraine operation and the take-over of Crimea. Jared could have had his own business reasons for the meeting, or he could have been on a mission from Trump.
There are not very many dots to have to connect here to see how Donald Trump himself could be under pressure directly from Putin. I am confident that Mueller will not ignore this. He may already be ten steps ahead of my analysis and speculation.
Ralph
PS: Thursday afternoon, it was revealed that Jared Kushner is now "under FBI scrutiny." The source also said that they are interested in some information he may have, not that he is himself the subject of investigation. Nevertheless, this brings the scrutiny not only right into the very center of the White House inner circle, it also brings it into the immediacy of the Trump family itself.
Kushner has previously said that he would voluntarily talk with any of the investigative bodies and tell them anything they want to k now. It's also noteworthy that, when an investigation begins looking into your life about one thing, they may be led to something else that you are vulnerable on -- like business financial dealings were a sanctioned bank, for example. The Russian bank whose CEO Jared met with is under US sanctions.
The youthful scion of a large real estate empire in New Jersey, who married the daughter of the New York real estate phenomenon Donald Trump, Jared Kushner's youthful, quiet good looks seems to go along with the image created by his observant, Orthodox Jewish practice: a nice, devoted, young man.
We're learning that there's a lot more to Jared than that image. One factor is his habit of shunning the spotlight. I am a pretty close observer of political news, and I have never heard Jared speak. I don't only mean "give a speech." I have never heard the sound of his voice. He apparently does not engage at all with TV reporters. So let's see what we can learn from Dara Lind's article.
Jared and Ivanka moved to Washington, along with their children, into a house in a nearby neighborhood to where the Obamas now live. So they're putting down roots. And both of them now have official positions in the Trump administration, albeit unpaid advisers. At first, I thought this was probably a good idea, based on my assumption that, if anyone could put some limits on Donald Trump, it would be these two, especially Ivanka.
But, as Lind points out: "What if . . . Jared is not a panacea for the chaotic White House, but one of its biggest problems? . . . Kushner hasn't been the 'adult in the room' urging caution and scrupulousness. To the contrary, he's been urging aggression and retaliation."
Contrary to expectations that he would have warned Trump not to fire FBI Director Comey, the New York Times has reported that he was supportive of, perhaps even encouraged, that decision. But, now that Robert Mueller has been appointed as special counselor to take over the FBI investigation, Jared is said to be the one urging counter-attack, with others taking the role of the calming influence.
The fact that one of Mueller's law firm colleagues has represented Jared in other cases seems to be a major concern of Jared's, who pushed for evoking the ethics rule that would prohibit a special counsel whose law firm has represented a person being investigated. The Justice Department has dispensed with that by granting a waiver to Mueller, given that he had no participation in Jared's case that was handled by other lawyers at his firm.
So what is Kushner so worried about? Lind points out that both Jared and Ivanka have been especially close to Michael Flynn; they were his champions in getting the appointment as National Security Adviser, saying that the family "owed" it to him to reward his loyalty during the campaign. That, in itself, is a little suspicious. National Security Adviser is perhaps the most sensitive post in a modern presidency. It is not a gold watch to be handed out as a reward for faithful service.
Jared was involved, along with Flynn, in at least one meeting with the Russian ambassador, as well as subsequent meetings with Russian officials on his own, including the head of a Russian bank that is personally controlled by Putin, who chose as the man to head it a former Russian spy. That's who Jared had the meeting with.
Kushner did not disclose any of those meetings when he applied for -- and got -- security clearance. That lack of disclosure put him on the radar of the Senate Intelligence Committee. Steve Bannon reportedly is deeply concerned about this, calling it "a disaster waiting to happen." Lind's reporting suggests that this might be one of the causes of the notorious conflict between Kushner and Bannon that was unsettling the inner circle of the Trump administration.
Dara Lind concludes with this:
"The idea that Kushner was some sort of moderating influence on Donald Trump was always more than a little overblown -- there was never much evidence that Trump was being moderated. . . . If Kushner has, or is, a Russia problem, that means that the current investigations go to the beating heart of the Trump White House. That could set up a very, very nasty fight indeed."Here's my own suspicion: With at least half a dozen people close to Trump clearly linked to the Russians in an unsavory way -- how can we ignore the very likely possibility that Trump himself is also directly under the influence of Russia?
Another leak has just revealed a conversation among Russian officials last summer about how to influence a president Trump through his advisers, and they seemed most interested in Flynn and Manafort at that time. This doesn't prove that they followed through on it; but it does show that they were thinking about it.
We also know now, from the testimony of former CIA Director John Brennan, the pattern in which Russians cultivate "assets" who then become conduits for them, sometimes wittingly through coercion, and sometimes unwittingly. According to some guest on MSNBC Wednesday night, whose name escapes me, "it always comes down to need or greed" on the part of the prospective asset. In Trump's case, it could have been both. He needed money; he has always been greedy for MORE of anything material. They could easily have satisfied his need by arranging for him to get money from their nefarious sources.
Why are we ignoring the distinct possibility that Donald Trump may be co-opted by the Russians? Here's how it could be. After his bankruptcies and a downturn in the real estate market, Donald Trump was in dire need of money. But he had ruined his credit standing in New York by not paying his loans. He turned instead to borrow huge amounts from Deutschebank, which is currently having to pay large fines for involvement in money-laundering. Real estate development is one of the two most used places to clean up money through "investing" and reselling. Trump could have participated with them in this -- and then he could be being blackmailed at this very moment.
Ralph
PS: Thursday afternoon, it was revealed that Jared Kushner is now "under FBI scrutiny." The source also said that they are interested in some information he may have, not that he is himself the subject of investigation. Nevertheless, this brings the scrutiny not only right into the very center of the White House inner circle, it also brings it into the immediacy of the Trump family itself.
Kushner has previously said that he would voluntarily talk with any of the investigative bodies and tell them anything they want to k now. It's also noteworthy that, when an investigation begins looking into your life about one thing, they may be led to something else that you are vulnerable on -- like business financial dealings were a sanctioned bank, for example. The Russian bank whose CEO Jared met with is under US sanctions.
Thursday, May 25, 2017
The downside to vote-by-mail: Montana.
We won't know for maybe another 12 hours (as I'm writing this) who wins the special election in Montana to fill the congressional seat vacated when Ryan Zinke was tapped by President Trump to be Interior Secretary.
Prior to last night, the race was considered a toss-up, but one that the Republican would have been expected to win in ordinary circumstances. But the unpopularity of Donald Trump and the Republican Congress make it less certain.
Then last night, Republican candidate Greg Gianforte was charged with misdemeanor assault on a newspaper reporter who was just trying to ask him a question about the newly released CBO scoring of the Republican health care bill. Gianforte began yelling at him to "'Get the hell out of here!" Then, according to eyewitnesses, a FoxNews TV crew in the room, Gianforte grabbed the reporter with both hands around his neck, threw him to the floor, and began punching him.
The sheriff said that, because the reporter's injuries were not severe enough to meet criteria for a felony charge, it had to be "misdemeanor assault."
The charge is less important than the political effect on today's election. Several newspapers and other organizations have rescinded their previous endorsements of Gianforte. Ordinarily, we would expect that this would mean the loss of the election for him.
However, Montanans use mail-in-balloting more than most states do. It's estimated that as many as two-thirds may have already voted before this incident took place. Democrats have launched an emergency appeal for a get-out-the-vote campaign, even soliciting people as far away as me, sitting here in Atlanta, to help make phone calls.
This is the perfect example of the down side of all forms of early voting. It's that sudden news, after you've voted, that would change your vote. On the other hand, as the Jon Ossoff campaign, which is vigorously promoting early voting, has pointed out: Once the campaign knows you have voted, they can stop utilizing time and resources on trying to get you to vote. If half voters do it early, they have only half as many to focus on on election day.
Ralph
Prior to last night, the race was considered a toss-up, but one that the Republican would have been expected to win in ordinary circumstances. But the unpopularity of Donald Trump and the Republican Congress make it less certain.
Then last night, Republican candidate Greg Gianforte was charged with misdemeanor assault on a newspaper reporter who was just trying to ask him a question about the newly released CBO scoring of the Republican health care bill. Gianforte began yelling at him to "'Get the hell out of here!" Then, according to eyewitnesses, a FoxNews TV crew in the room, Gianforte grabbed the reporter with both hands around his neck, threw him to the floor, and began punching him.
The sheriff said that, because the reporter's injuries were not severe enough to meet criteria for a felony charge, it had to be "misdemeanor assault."
The charge is less important than the political effect on today's election. Several newspapers and other organizations have rescinded their previous endorsements of Gianforte. Ordinarily, we would expect that this would mean the loss of the election for him.
However, Montanans use mail-in-balloting more than most states do. It's estimated that as many as two-thirds may have already voted before this incident took place. Democrats have launched an emergency appeal for a get-out-the-vote campaign, even soliciting people as far away as me, sitting here in Atlanta, to help make phone calls.
This is the perfect example of the down side of all forms of early voting. It's that sudden news, after you've voted, that would change your vote. On the other hand, as the Jon Ossoff campaign, which is vigorously promoting early voting, has pointed out: Once the campaign knows you have voted, they can stop utilizing time and resources on trying to get you to vote. If half voters do it early, they have only half as many to focus on on election day.
Ralph
CBO scores Republican health care bill
The Congressional Budget Office has released its scoring analysis of the revised American Health Care Bill passed by the Republican House on May 4th.
As reported by Reuters, 23 million people would lose health coverage by 2026, which is only one million fewer than in the first version that was so bad that the House leadership didn't even bring to the floor for a vote.
It is also estimated that the bill would reduce the deficit by $119 billion over the same period. In order to achieve that, while also eliminating Obamacare taxes on the wealthy that cover the subsidies, the Republican bill rolls back the Medicaid health plan, allows insurance companies to charge older people as much as five times as much as younger people, allows pre-existing conditions to be a barrier in some situations, and allows states to opt out of some "essential health benefits" required in Obamacare.
The Senate has a group working on a plan of their own, but Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told Reuters that he does not know how Republicans will get the necessary votes. Don't trust him. Word is that a secret Senate version is being crafted that will be pushed through without public hearings, with little debate, and hoping to sneak it through like the House did its version.
The big question, with the Russia-Trump investigation roaring onto the scene, is whether Republicans have enough political capital to get anything done.
Ralph
As reported by Reuters, 23 million people would lose health coverage by 2026, which is only one million fewer than in the first version that was so bad that the House leadership didn't even bring to the floor for a vote.
It is also estimated that the bill would reduce the deficit by $119 billion over the same period. In order to achieve that, while also eliminating Obamacare taxes on the wealthy that cover the subsidies, the Republican bill rolls back the Medicaid health plan, allows insurance companies to charge older people as much as five times as much as younger people, allows pre-existing conditions to be a barrier in some situations, and allows states to opt out of some "essential health benefits" required in Obamacare.
The Senate has a group working on a plan of their own, but Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told Reuters that he does not know how Republicans will get the necessary votes. Don't trust him. Word is that a secret Senate version is being crafted that will be pushed through without public hearings, with little debate, and hoping to sneak it through like the House did its version.
The big question, with the Russia-Trump investigation roaring onto the scene, is whether Republicans have enough political capital to get anything done.
Ralph
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