Reading the tea leaves

I have no inside sources, no special links -- just a pretty keen, intuitive sense of how small clues in the fabric of our communal life add up -- call it reading tea leaves.

Here's what I think may be happening:

1. There seems to be an increase in news of terrorist plots being interrupted. There was the arrest last week of the young guy who was the neighborhood coffee/donut cart vendor who was arrested on charges as a jihadist with bomb plans and materials. It sounded more serious than those trumped up ones bush used to trumpet. Seems like there was another one recently, and today police took two men of middle Eastern appearance off a plane when they behaved suspiciously. It feels like there is an uptick in such activity, or at least of reporting it.

2. Obama behaved very decisively at the U.N., at G-20, and in revealing the secret Iranian uranium enriching facility. His warning to the Iranians had more steel in it than before. It was all quite appropriate -- not the old bush swagger. But he clearly was projecting an image of strength and of being in control of the situation.

3. We know that there is a big internal debate going on in the administration about Afghanistan and our future role there. Biden and others are urging a shift away from military involvement; the other side is urging an increase of troops. They have let out some trial balloons that Obama might adopt Biden's views.

4. Here's my tea leaves reading: All the emphasis on catching terrorists and on Obama's image as a strong leader may be an intentional strategy to counter what will be the inevitable criticism when he decides to draw down our involvement in Afghanistan.

It's inevitable that he will be painted as weak, endangering our security, running away from the "just" war, etc. by the hawks -- and the Republicans, who may or may not agree, will nevertheless take full political advantage.

My prediction: an announcement will come soon that we are not going to do a Viet Nam kind of escalation into a quagmire; there will be a change of course in Afghanistan.

Remember: you read it here first.

Ralph