My early take on the results of yesterday's voting is that, despite winning the governor's races in both Virginia and New Jersey, the message for Republicans is clear: do not let your right wing take over the party.
The Va and NJ voters in exit polls indicated that it was the economy, more than political ideology, that swayed independent voters and determined the outcome. Many who voted for the Republican still had a favorable opinion of Obama and what he is trying to do. Most said that Obama was not a factor in their vote for governor.
The economy may, however, be a big factor in 2010. Voters who were most unhappy about the economy voted strongly for the Republican in both VA and NJ. So, if the economy does not improve significantly -- and that probably means jobs more than any other measure -- the Democrats could be in trouble in 2010.
More predictive than the governors' races, I think, is the NY House District 23, in which a 3-way race between a moderate Republican, a Democrat, and a right-wing conservative running as the Conservative Party candidate ended in the Democrat's win in a solid Republican district.
Here's how it happened: conservative Republicans decided to back the Conservative Party candidate instead of their own moderate Republican. Big names like Palin and Pawlenty endorsed him, money flowed -- and the moderate Republican's chances of winning in a Republican district were so slim that she dropped out, as they hoped she would.
But then she turned around and endorsed the Democratic candidate. And he won, 49%-45%.
That should be a warning to the RNC not to let the right wing take over in 2010. And I hope that the erratic Michael Steele, RNC Chair, ignores my advice.
Ralph
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George Stephanopolis agrees: "The GOP won big tonight because the voting was a referendum on the economy. On that top issue, voters let out a primal scream."
ReplyDeleteAs worried independents drifted back to the GOP, Obama's most loyal voters -- African-Americans and under 30s -- stayed home.
Howard Dean echoed the same thoughts. He said what happened in NY-23 "has destroyed the Republican party." Meaning that the right wing is driving out the moderates, who will be more compatible with the Democratic party.
ReplyDeleteRalph, I'm feeling very low at this time because my new Gov in NJ is Christie. I know a lot of things about him and none of them are good.
ReplyDeleteJoy
Condolences, Joy.
ReplyDeleteTake heart, though. We've lived under a Republican governor named "Sonny" for two terms now, and we survived. Not that it wouldn't have been far better with a Democrat, but life does go on.
If I had to choose between a Republican governor or a Republican senator, I'd choose the governor -- because much of what they do is not as much influenced by political ideology as in D.C.