You know the adage: "All politics is local." Well, that's true in the sense that even the national race for president is colored by thousands of local conditions, local personalities, and local efforts.
But there are also over-arching principles -- macro-politics, if you will -- that sometimes seem to be the more important factor.
So what was the most important factor in 2010?
Not the Tea Party, not Obama, not Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, not the huge infusions of cash from anonymous wealthy conservatives, not big business/big bank/big Pharma lobbying, not Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck.
Here's the answer: The economy. Remember that other adage, coined by James Carville? "It's the economy, stupid."
Here we are at midterm, when the president's party always loses seats in Congress -- and the economy is still in shambles and unemployment is still close to 10% nationally. And the Democrats control all three branches of government. You're going to lose BIG.
Add in one other macro-political factor: when things are going badly, the American electorate tends to want to divide political power. So they gave control of the House to the Republicans, while leaving the Senate under Democratic control -- but just barely, and without the filibuster proof supermajority.
If the economy had been better, the losses might have been less. But, despite all the noise and all the hoopla and all the money -- this election has been about The Economy, Stupid.
Ralph
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Supporting evidence seems to say it wasn't so much about which party -- just vote against the one in power:
ReplyDeleteIn exit polls, 6 in 10 voters named the economy as the most decisive factor in their vote, and nothing else came close. Also 9 of 10 said the economy is in bad shape and expect it to be a problem next year. And those people largely voted Republican.
Which we would think is voting against their interests -- but then if you think of it as simply a vote against what's been happening, it makes sense.
Obama rode a similar economic discontent (thought it wasn't yet as bad) to victory in 2008. Now voters think he had his chance and didn't fix it; so try the other guys.
And if they can't fix it either, then back to Obama in 2012 ???
More evidence of that point: 87% of voters are worried about the direction of the economy in the coming year, and half that number are "very worried." Those people voted for Republicans 70% to 28% for Democrats.
ReplyDeleteAlso, those who blamed "bankers" for the economy gave Republicans an 11 point advantage.
The desperation for change is the same as in 2008. "Somebody do something !!!!"
Ha! It's gratifying to have your pronouncements backed up by poll results. Rasmussen has just released a poll that says:
ReplyDelete"59% of Likely U.S. Voters think it is at least somewhat likely that most voters will be disappointed with Republicans in Congress before the next national elections. That includes 38% who say it is Very Likely."
That's means that, even the majority of those who voted for Republicans, expect to be disappointed by them.
That's means that, even the majority of those who voted for Republicans, expect to be disappointed by them.
ReplyDeleteAnd will [be disappointed by them.]...