The census

Preliminary reports from the release of the 2010 national census today suggest a big shift in population (and thus representation in the House) toward the more conservative Southern and Western states.

Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, and Washington will gain at least one seat each, with Texas the big winner, adding four.

Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania will each lose at least one.

Definitely an overall blue to red shift -- at least it seems on the surface. And that will probably be the effect overall.

However, it won't necessarily mean that all those individual seats will shift from blue to red. First, some of the losers have conservative reps already.

Second, we shouldn't assume that people moving from Massachusetts to Texas suddenly become conservative. So the effect may be mitigated a little by a few seats here and there shifting from red to blue within a red state.

Also some of the buildup in population of the southern and western states is a growing Hispanic population. They tend to vote more liberal.

Wishful thinking? Sure. But there's some truth, too.

Probably the biggest effect is going to be felt, not in the actual population shifts, but in the fact that the governors and legislatures in those states gaining will be in charge of redrawing the district lines -- and they will magnify the effect by creating districts that favor their own party. Most of the gainers have Republican governors, probably legislatures too.

Ralph