Sharon and Mickey Nardo filled me in a bit ("Egypt - 3") on the facts about the pre-planning and organization behind the successful protest movement that toppled Mubarak. The New York Times carried a lengthy story a couple of days later with more details, explaining that this wasn't a spontaneous movement lacking organizers.
It seems that it wasn't that the Egyptians quickly learned from the Tunesians how their demonstrations work. It was that a small group of dedicated activists from both Egypt and Tunesia had been working together for a couple of years, studying demonstration techniques and devising plans -- and that the Tunesians put it into practice first because of events unfolding in their country. But the Egyptians were very much part of the original planning.
Other important aspects of the success are: (1) the smart use of the social network to communicate quickly and widely with millions of citizens; (2) the Egyptian military's siding with the protesters rather than the dictator; (3) lack of an extremist Islamic group that co-opts the protest and grabs power. As unrest spreads in other Middle East countries, these three factors may make a huge difference in the success. In a country where the government learns how to shut down the internet and the social network, and/or the military turns on the protesters (as in Iran), and where an extremist group seizes power -- then the same results can't be expected.
But things will probably never be the same after the historic triumph of peaceful revolution in Egypt.
Ralph
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Already, we can see the difference in fate of a protest movement when the military is not at least neutral. In Bahrain, the military has attacked and threatened demonstrators.
ReplyDeleteUnless they have the resources to counter this with huge numbers of demonstrators in backlash against the brutality, and unless the military backs down, this nascent revolt may be squashed.