Triumph of the Egyptian people in peaceful, but forceful, overthrow of government

To me, it seems one of the greatest examples ever of the power of peaceful protest to overthrow a repressive, entrenched regime. At least as of mid-afternoon Friday, EST, Mubarak has reportedly resigned and left, turning power over to the military -- with relatively minor bloodshed. And fortunately this military seems apt to handle it wisely and provide for an orderly but quick transition to free elections and democracy.

Several elements have probably made this possible:

(1) Mubarak has certainly wielded despotic power, cruel police-state tactics -- but he has also been an important ally with the U.S. and Israel, ever since the the Camp David Accords went into effect in 1980 (and give Jimmy Carter his due on that). Mubarak's hated regime, unlike some hated regimes, has contributed to stability in a volatile region. Therefore, Mubarak is one of those despots with whom it has been advantageous for us to work, which leads to #2.

(2) The United States has had significant influence, but not control of, Mubarak. This is of course in part the money we supplied his government through the years. And, although my knowledge of the details is sketchy, my understanding is that we have done it in a way to give us more influence over the Egyptian military even than over Mubarak himself. That may help explain why the military is siding with the people rather than protecting Mubarak.

(3) Apparently Mubarak double-crossed everyone with his speech yesterday. Spokesmen for the Egyptian military and the U. S. Government say that they were not expecting his refusal to step down. But it proved to be only the last hurrah of a man whose time has passed, and his stubborn refusal to go proved to be just a last bump in the road.

(4) The true heroes here are the protesters themselves and whoever/whatever prevailed in keeping this many people focused on a non-violent approach to regime change. Hundreds of thousands on repeated occasions, and on several they were counted in the millions, flooded the streets and squares in peaceful demonstration. There is true power in such numbers. Too many to arrest, too many to kill, and the risk of setting off rioting was too great: the country would be plunged into uncontrollable chaos. Ghandi and Martin Luther King were right.

(5) The military let it be known that they would try to keep some order but they would act to protect the demonstrators. That showed whose side they were on. When "pro-Mubarak supporters" (really, paid thugs) began battling the protesters, the military protected the protesters, pushing back the attacking thugs.

(6) President Obama's caution and behind the scenes diplomatic pressure was (as far as we know now) the exactly correct stance. He was walking a tightrope -- needing to work with Mubarak if he stayed in power, but not wanting to be identified with him if he stepped down. And once again it points up the importance of having an adult in charge. Obama's caution was right. Any more support for Mubarak would have increased anti-American feeling in the people. We can dismiss as political posturing the taunting criticism of some of the potential GOP candidates, but at least they were not in charge -- and we should remember this in 2012.

As of now, this seems like a huge success story. Of course, there will be bumpy roads ahead. Right now, the pressure is on the military leaders to proceed wisely. My guess is that our diplomatic and military advisers will play a role behind the scenes; but it is ultimately the Egyptians themselves -- and these crowds are largely educated and middle class -- who will determined the next shape of their government. That was what Obama kept coming back to time and again: this will be determined by the Egyptian people themselves. And it was.

Let's hope that the anti-Obama crowd here in the US will have the good sense not to overplay the "Muslim Brotherhood" card and arouse fear of having Egypt become a theocracy. By all responsible reporters who have contacts and knowledge, this is not what the Brotherhood is wanting. They want to be part of a democratic process. They don't need ignorant US politicians instilling doubt about their intentions where there is none.

Ralph