GOP field now (probably) set

Chris Christie announced today that he will not be a candidate for president in 2012, ending the groundswell of pressure on him to run. Citing his love for being governor of New Jersey and not wanting to leave that job unfinished, he said of the presidency, "Now is not my time."

His answer to a question of whether he might consider a VP nomination: "I don't think there's anybody in America who would think my personality is best suited to be number two."

The field is probably set now -- barring a last minute foolish leap by Jeb Bush (and consider the baggage he would have to carry) or a reconsideration by Mitch Daniels or Tim Pawlenty. Both very unlikely. Michael Bloomberg? Rudy? Neither could make it with the current rabid, right-wing crowd.

So: Michele is toast -- two more top aides have left the campaign, and several others are returning to her congressional payroll, probably a signal that funding is drying up.

Perry continues to be confronted with a new potential skeleton in the closet almost every day. With his sources of financial backing, he can probably stay in the race. Depending on how well he does in the early primaries, he could still emerge in a two-man finale with Romney. But his poll numbers have dropped from 29 to 16 -- with Romney staying the same at 25.

Herman Cain is the one who has picked up the majority of voters turning away from Perry.

A WashingtonPost-ABC News poll, conducted over the last 3 days among Republican and Republican-leaning Independents, has some startling news:

You choice, if you were voting in a primary or caucus today: [with comparison to the same question in June and in September]:

--------------------June-------Sept-------Now--

Romney------------30----------25---------25
Cain------------------7-----------4---------16
Perry----------------8-----------29---------16
Paul-----------------11----------10---------11
Gingrich--------------6----------6-----------7
Bachmann-----------16----------8-----------7
Santorum-------------3----------3-----------2
Huntsman------------3----------1-----------1
Other/no opinion----16--------13---------15

Look at Perry and Cain between Sept and now -- from 29/4 to 16/16 in a matter of a few weeks. Almost everybody else stayed within one point of where they were in September.

What does this mean? More indication that conservative voters are flailing about, trying to find the White Knight and wanting it to be somebody other than Romney. But he just keeps on keeping on, above the fray of what's going on among his challengers. And nobody can land a knockout blow on him, even though 75% want someone else.

Is Cain likely to get the nomination? No. And unless Perry can resurrect himself, he isn't either. Bachmann is long gone. Paul is too quirky and fringey; he has a loyal following, but he can't grow his base very much. If Gingrich hasn't fooled the crowd by now, he's not going to. Santorum and Huntsman are stuck in the cellar. You don't come from there at this late date -- 3 months till the actual voting begins.

Maybe I'm too quick to dismiss Cain. Another question in the poll: "Regardless of whom you support, would you say that the more you hear about X, do you like him/her more or less?

Cain got 70% more, 12% less.
Romney got 38% more, 42% less.
Perry got 29% more, 56% less.

So -- although I still think he's less likely to get the nomination because he's such an outsider, and the GOP powers that be obviously would prefer Romney -- still the people like Cain. And it's easy to see why: he's so open and genuine, he has pithy one-liners, and he also targets the hot button issues that the conservative base eats up. Plus -- and this is a very big plus -- he has no elective record to have to defend. They also like him because he's an outsider. But winning the Republican primary is a different battlefield than winning the general election. It's appealing to be against things; but to win the general election you've got to show some concrete and workable plan for what you would do. A catchy phrase like his 9-9-9 taxation plan will have to be fleshed out; now, he gets by with the sound-bite and no details.

As political theater, this is really fun to watch. Let's see what they do now that it looks like the White Knight is not going to come. Think "Waiting for Godot."

Ralph

PS: I didn't even mention the former governor of Alaska. Another question asked in the poll: "Would you like to see Sarah Palin run?" The answer: No 66%, Yes 31%.

You betcha !!!