Consider this scenario over the next few months:
1. The cumulative weight of accusations by women proves too much for Cain's supporters, and they desert him. He drops out of the race, ostensibly to protect his family from further distress from all the publicity, which or course has no basis in fact, he says. Translated: his wife says "no way, you philandering SOB."
2. A majority of Cain's supporters go over to Gingrich, who is already leading by a big margin in Iowa in the latest poll. He swamps Romney, who comes in third behind Gingrich and Paul. Perry, Bachmann and Santorum come in at #4, 5, and 6. Bachmann and Santorum drop out. Perry has the money to continue, but everyone knows eventually his support will go to Gingrich too.
3. Romney and Gingrich duke it out in New Hampshire, with Romney winning by a slight edge, much less than he should have, so it's a defeat on expectations.
4. Gingrich beats Romney in South Carolina.
5. If Gingrich can survive the renewed scrutiny of his past, then he's on track for the nomination. There is growing reason to think he can survive it. Evangelicals like a bad boy who has repented and found religion. Confession and forgiveness -- as opposed to Cain's stout denials. They also give him a pass on the hypocrisy of impeaching Clinton -- because Clinton lied. But Gingrich confessed (years later, to be sure).
4. The anti-Romney crowd is desperate. The brainey Gingrich has captured the populist vote, but the insiders don't trust him and don't like him. They persuade Sarah Palin to jump in and try to capture the crown from Gingrich and defeat Romney.
What then? It could happen.
Ralph
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The Gingrich scenario is frightening and looking more real every day. Some desperate Republicans might consider cajoling Palin to enter the fray but it would be too late at this point for her to get her name on many of the early, crucial primary ballots. So it seems that there will be a major duke-out between two morally duplicitous narcissists whose vocabularies do not have any concept of shame. Where is the Freudian super ego when it is most needed? Thomas
ReplyDeleteRomney had the potential for being that Freudian superego (the squeeky-clean boy scout, faithful to his wife) -- but he seems to have sold his soul to the devil (a Faustian bargain?, to use another F-word)
ReplyDeleteNewt is type cast as Mephistopheles -- the evil one who is capable of multiple disguises in order to trick you into giving him power and control over you. I was just reading an article about Newt's past -- which emphasizes his wish to "blow things up."
The problem with both these men is that they have no core principles, no integrity. They're both proving to be chameleon's and are not to be trusted. What you see is NOT what you'll get.
All of which would be terrific for Obama's re-election -- if we could trust the American people to hear the truth and believe it.