Nate Silver's predictions for Iowa

Remember Nate Silver's 538 blog during the 2008 campaign? He's the one who does amazing things with statistics, using poll averages weighted by various factors, to come up with predictions. He zoomed to the top of everyone's list of smart people in the numbers-crunching game.

He's now doing it for the New York Times, and his predictions about the Iowa caucuses are out. He not only gives standings but calculates the statistical chances of each person winning, using some kind of alchemy based on averages, trends, demographics, etc. For example, he gives Ron Paul a 25.7% share of the vote but a 52% chance of winning the caucuses.

That's right.

Nate Silver is predicting, based on current data, that Ron Paul has a 52% chance of winning the Iowa caucuses.

And who comes in next? Romney has a 21.3% vote and a 28% chance of winning, followed by Newt with 13.9% vote and 8% chance of winning, nip and tuck with Rick Perry at 14% of the vote and 7% chance of winning. Bachmann and Santorum trail at 2% chance of winning each.

Does it mean anything? Iowa is still particularly volatile -- but it's getting pretty close and this seems right with the trends.

New Hampshire: Romney has 75% chance of winning, with Paul at 12% and Gingrich at 10%.

For what it's worth -- at least it's fun for me; good soap opera.

Ralph