A "Mittastrophe" is how Huffington Post headlined the news of the Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado primary events. I might also add that the evening was also a Newtastrophe, although he was not expected to do well and wasn't even on the ballot in Missouri.
But Romney losing to Santorum by 30% in Missouri, by 5% in Colorado (where Mitt was expected to win easily), and coming in third in Minnesota with a dismal 16.9% is something of a disaster and stops the all-but-inevitable status he had returned to after Florida. It's even more stunning because it was unanticipated. There were few advance polls and no exit polling -- so when the results began to come in, the reality stung extra hard for the Romney campaign.
What does it mean? The voters still aren't happy with Romney. This week they flirted with Santorum, so they don't like Newt either. Santorum would be a cake-walk for Obama.
I think what it means is that the chances that someone else will wind up as the nominee just went up astronomically. Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul will continue and battle it out for the rest of the primary season. In the end, perhaps no one will have enough delegates for the nomination, and they will have a brokered convention. My prediction: either Christie or Jeb Bush will be persuaded. Or maybe someone else. Daniels? Pawlenty? Jindal? Petraeus?
Ralph
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I just checked the delegate count. Santorum now is in second place, ahead of Newt. We've seen too much "flavor-of-the-week" capriciousness for me to think this is a knock-out blow for Newt and that he will drop out.
ReplyDeleteBut just go with it a moment: I would be delighted if the GOP nominates Santorum to run against Obama -- because I don't think there is any chance that he could win, even if there was a major terrorist attack 2 weeks before the election.
With Newt, the terrifying prospect of winding up with him as president made me prefer Romney as the opponent of choice, even though Newt would be easier to beat.
With Santorum, I think the chances that he might win under any circumstances are too slight to worry about.
Post-mortum analysis is coming in. The consensus seems to be that this may not mean too much for Santorum in the long run -- after all, none of these were binding as to actual delegates awarded.
ReplyDeleteBut it is a significant defeat for Romney. It destroys the sense of inevitability that he had regained following Florida, and it augments the doubt that he can "close the deal."
What it does for Santorum is to give him rationale for staying in; it should bring in some much needed money, and it provides a least a momentary sense of momentum.
Romney's loss of Missouri was anticipated and no big deal since it was really a "beauty contest." Just one step on their complicated process of choosing delegates. Minnesota was less of a surprise, although finishing third at 16.9%, and behind Ron Paul, was a blow.
But what was most devastating was losing Colorado, which he was expected to sail through. Also the fact that he had won both Colorado and Minnesota primaries in 2008.
Romney will still probably win Michigan (his father was governor). Ohio should be the next really big test.