Speculation and parsing of every question from the nine justices on the health care debate is running at fever pitch. The consensus of news accounts seems to be surprise at how opposed the conservative justices were.
I've decided not to get into that and simply wait for their decision. Despite the pessimism of liberal court watchers, we have to remember that their questions do not necessarily reflect what their decision is. Sometimes they're playing devil's advocate to clarify the arguments.
The best chance seems to be that at least one of the conservatives will consider the enormity of the problem important enough to sway his decision -- i.e., the argument that the whole reform plan cannot work without the individual mandate to provide a larger pool of healthier people to offset the greater costs resulting from eliminating the pre-existing condition clause.
And either Kennedy or Roberts might do that.
There's also the possibility that others will be persuaded as they write and swap opinions among themselves.
So let's stay hopeful and wait.
Ralph
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Meanwhile what happens if they do overturn the mandate is getting clarified, and it may not be as total a disaster as we have thought.
ReplyDeleteOne point: only 7% of the public would be forced to buy insurance under this mandate. The much bigger majority of people who are currently uninsured would get government subsidies to buy into a health care plan because of their income level. It has been calculated that those who really might come under the penalty for not buying insurance would be relatively small.
Of course, the opposing politicians don't want that to get out, because it's to their advantage to make it sound like something that would be forced on everybody.