Nate Silver is more optimistic

Well, this makes me feel a little bit better.   Nate Silver reads the political tea leaves better than anybody, and he's more optimistic. 

He does it by giving differential weight to each poll based on it's record of reliability and on how recently the poll was taken;  then he averages a number of polls, figuring in each poll's differential weight.

As of today, he gives Obama a 62.7% chance of winning, Romney 37.3%.   He awards all of the electoral votes rather than designating some as swing states.  So on electoral votes, he gives Obama 290.2 and Romney 247.8 (270 needed to win -- or rather 269.1, since some states apportion their electoral votes, so it's anything over 1/2 of 538 or 269).

Anyway -- now we can have a happier Friday night.

Ralph