What the Wisconsin recall vote means

Those of us paying only casual attention to the recall vote yesterday in Wisconsin may have thought of it only as a referendum on Gov. Scott Walker's busting of the public service workers' union.  That is what initially gained national attention and generated the most heat.

It was far more than that.  Some wanted to paint it as a trial run for November.   It was not that.

1.  The decisive win for Walker (53% to 46%) was complex.  Exit polls revealed that even some people who opposed Walker's anti-union tactics voted for Walker, some because they like his aggressive approach to fiscal responsibility in general or thought the good he did outweighed the union busting.

2  The big factor seems to be feelings about the recall itself.  In exit polls, 60% said they are appropriate only for official misconduct, and 10% said they are never appropriate.

3.  Perhaps this helps explain why 36% of labor households voted to retain Walker.  I have not yet seen another explanation offered, and it seems blatantly anti-intuitive given Walker's fierce anti-labor power play.

4.  Does the Democrat's loss signal trouble for Obama in November?   Not necessarily.    Exit polls show voters in the recall favor Obama over Romney by 52% to 43%.   Of Obama supporters, 17% of them voted to keep Walker in office.

5.  It has almost been lost in the hullaballoo, but the recall election did have one favorable effect for Dems.   The Democrats regained control of the state senate, when one of the Republicans subject to recall was defeated by his Democratic opponent, a former state senator.

Ralph