Hopeful signs

Polls show Obama and Romney essentially tied in the popular vote.   So what are these hopeful signs?

1.  Romney has already had his convention and whatever bump in the polls he will get from that.   Obama's convention is yet to come.

2.  Yesterday's New York Times front page blurbed an inside article, "Hitting the Trail," with this juxtaposition:  "Mitt Romney met with crowds in Ohio and Florida.  President Obama was cheered in Colorado."

3.  Other news stories reported crowds of 1,000 to 3,000 for Romney.   Obama spoke to a crowd of 13,000 in Colorado.

4.  Statistical genius Nate Silver, who analyzes and evaluates groups of polls, says that Romney's convention bounce appears middling.  A Gallup poll released today said that 36% of Independent voters said the convention made them more likely to vote for Romney, while 33% said it made them less likely to do so.

5.  The same Nate Silver, who keeps a running estimate of their chances of winning, based on individual state polling and the resulting electoral vote estimates.   He gives Obama a 74.5% chance of winning the election.

6.  Obama is leading in all of the toss-up states except North Carolina;  but the leads are small and could reverse.

Ralph