Debate #3: Obama 2, Romney 1

Obama won the debate tonight clearly on points and on projecting strong leadership.  He attacked Romney early and often on his prior statements which either are confusing, contradictory of his own other statements, or showing a lack of understanding.

Romney obviously came into the debate to try to pivot from foreign policy to economic issues.   He used wordy rhetoric to criticize Obama on foreign policy, but there was very little that he actually differed with him on, when it got down to specific policies.

From the Romney camp's perspective, he probably did well in that he didn't make any major gaffes and he covered his lack of knowledge about foreign affairs fairly well for those who don't know much about it.  So I doubt he lost any votes from people who already supported him.

For those few undecided voters, Obama probably came out a bit stronger and more presidential.   So my guess is that it won't change the polls much, but it might have slowed the momentum which has seemed to be in  Romney's direction in the past few days.  But it's going to be very close -- and it could change.  Expect a nail biter two weeks from now.

Before the debate tonight, Nate Silver's poll analysis showed Obama with a 69.3% chance of winning the electoral vote and therefore the election.   It is still very close in the popular vote:  50.1% Obama, 48.8% Romney.   But as of Monday morning, the latest polls show Obama leading in every battleground state except North Carolina and Florida (NH, VA, OH, IA, CO, NV) with 289 electoral votes.   And I don't believe he lost any tonight.

By far the best line of the evening was Obama's, responding to Romney's criticism of his defense budget, which Romney wants to increase by $2 trillion that the military is not even asking for.   And he harped on the fact that "our navy has fewer ships now than we did in 1916."

Obama: 

"You mention the Navy, for example, and the fact that we have fewer ships than we did in 1916. Well governor, we also have fewer horses and bayonets . . . because the nature of our military has changed. . . .  [T]he question is not a game of battleship where we're counting ships, it's 'What are our capabilities?'"

He then explained that the military budgets are the result of strategic planning with the military chiefs, putting more resources into the kinds of weapons and programs that actually meet our anticipated needs in the 21st century.

Bravo !!

Ralph