Did we go over the cliff . . . or not?

It's one hour and fifteen minutes to midnight -- the witching hour that was supposed to mark us falling down the over-hyped fiscal cliff.   Then it turned out it wasn't that big a deal, at least not immediately.   Most of the effects can be fixed.

But it was still used as a negotiating incentive for the political implications, for both parties.

Now, as the minutes tick away, it's not really clear whether we going over or not.   I supposed technically we will, because they say it's impossible to write up a bill and get it passed.  In fact, the House adjourned and wouldn't vote on it tonight anyway, even if the Senate does pass it.   And they're not likely to get it done before midnight.

So yes, we're going over the cliff.   But we may hardly notice it.

What's actually in the deal that Joe Biden and Mitch McConnell supposedly have hammered out.   This is the third team, so to speak.    First it was Obama and Boehner.   That fell through.  Then it was Obama and Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell.  That went nowhere.   So they called in good old Joe, who has worked with McConnell for 23 years in the Senate and knows how to work a deal.

The bottom line, I think, is that, because the more liberal Democrats hate it and the more conservative Republicans hate it, it's probably a pretty good compromise.  Each side gave in on a very important point for them:   Republicans gave in on their pledge never to raise taxes on anybody;  and Democrats gave in on Obama's campaign promise to raise them for anyone making over $200,000/250,000.

It also extends unemployment benefits, extends child tax credit and college tuition tax credit amd fixes the Alternate Minimum Tax.  It also cancels the 23% cut in payment to Medicare doctors, which would have decimated the number of them taking Medicare patients.   The Republicans also got some of what they wanted on estate and capital gains taxes.

Both sides got some of what they wanted and agreed to some of what they hated.

The fact is, however, that this really only kicks the can into March, when they will have to try to deal with tax reform, spending cuts, and the debt ceiling all at the same time.   That's not good.  The Democrats will have lost some of their advantage, since avoiding the fiscal cliff and being blamed for it, won't motivate the Republicans as it does now.

Strategically, who won?   That's not clear either.   You could argue that Republicans broke the most solemn (to them) promise by voting to raise taxes on the wealthy.   Democrats, especially labor and progressives, hate that Obama gave in on holding the tax break to $250,000 as he had said he would do.

But will it pass?   That's not so clear.   Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid have said they will support it.   Will the more liberal Democrats and the Tea Party Republicans?   That's not so clear.

Stay tuned.

And, by the way, Happy New Year.

Ralph