Take heed, those who decide the nominations for Oscars: Snub a deserving favorite at your peril.
Ben Affleck is the case in point. His incredibly good film 'Argo" is a break-through triple-threat for him. He played three roles: co-producer, director, and star. The film was nominated for a best picture Oscar and six others awards, but Afleck was, quite surprisingly, not nominated for best director.
He has now won best director awards from several other groups, including the Directors' Guild and the Golden Globes, which also gave it the Best Picture award.
Since "Argo" is nominated for seven Oscars, including best picture, my guess is that the snub of Afleck as best director will give it an extra slight edge to win best picture award. I'm suggesting there might be a slight inclination to make it up to Affleck for the snub to give him the best picture award in a close vote.
That's not to say it doesn't deserve best picture anyway, although my favorite would be "Lincoln," because it is just the type of movie that somehow bespeaks the grandest achievement in a way that "Argo" doesn't, in my opionion.
But I would not be heart-broken if "Argo" wins -- and would even cheer a bit as I usually do when a deserving underdog comes out on top. And the directors division of the Academy, who chose to leave him out of it's best director list, clearly turned Afleck into the underdog.
Ralph
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