On the eve of the hearings on two blockbuster gay rights cases before the Supreme Court, the momentum has definitely been building rapidly -- it almost feels like an avalanche -- for support of marriage equality.
Whether this will have any conscious effect on the justices' decisions, I do believe it will have at least a subtle effect on the two I consider swing votes on this issue: Anthony Kennedy and John Roberts.
Kennedy wrote the majority opinions in both the Colorado Amendment 2 case and the Lawrence v. Texas that overturned anti-gay-rights and anti-sodomy laws. He went out of his way, in the opinions, to say (1) that the amendment could only have arisen from animus toward homosexuals and (2) that the Bowers v. Hardwick decision had been wrongly decided in 1986 when it upheld the arrest of two consenting adults for having sex in the privacy of a home. On the other hand, Kennedy is a practicing Catholic and is known to feel strongly about marriage.
Roberts' conservatism might ordinarily make him unlikely to support gay marriage; but he has an investment in the legacy of "the Roberts Court." So the growing public acceptance might have some influence. On the other hand, he may feel he already "gave" on that issue in the ObamaCare decision and not want to seem too easily swayed by public opinion.
A possible other slight factor in Robert's subjectivity: he has a lesbian cousin who will be sitting in the courtroom during the hearings tomorrow along with her partner. They applied to Robert's office for tickets and got them.
So, we wait.
Ralph
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