Obamacare as the campaign issue

A special election to fill the congressional seat vacated by the death of Florida's Bill Young (R-FL) this week was won by the Republican candidate, David Jolly.   So, no change in the balance in the House from this -- BUT:   Is this an indication of what we can expect next November?

This district is considered a swing district, and the Democratic candidate, Alex Sink, was well-known, having lost the race for governor of Florida to now Gov. Rick Scott.

So how bad is this as a predictor for November?   One thing we can be sure of is that Obamacare will be the big issue, as it was here in a massive ad campaign paid for largely by out of state wealthy Republican donors.   Republicans are crediting this with the win, so of course they will rev it up in November.

But here are a few caveats in that scenario:

1.  It's all in the turnout.    Republican voters always turn out better for mid-term elections, and they had a 13 point advantage in turnout this time.   Jolly won by 1.9%.   I'm not sure what this means:   if Repubs' turnout was 13 points better much better and he won by less than 2%, is that a good sign for them?   Jolly has to run again in November, and a better turnout by Dems might change things.

2.  Republicans are more energized by negative feelings about Obamacare than Democrats are by positive feelings about it.   That could change as it gets implemented over the next six months and as the news becomes more positive.

3.  The Democratic candidate actually raised more campaign money than the Republican one did.  The big difference was in outside money that did not go to the campaign  but paid for ads independently.   This was a single congressional district -- but Republicans rightly saw the advantage of striking early with the big donor money.   Maybe Dems will get wise.

4.  This may just be the wake-up call that Democrats needed to energize them.  If Democrats don't learn how to control the message, Republicans will continue in their unscrupulous attacks.  I saw some of the TV ads replayed on MSNBC in order to debunk them.   It is really shameless the distortions and outright lies that Republicans are using to frighten senior citizens about Medicare and Social Security. 

For example, cancelling some of the wasteful spending and excesses of the Medicare Advantage Program (a Bush-era alternative) is a good idea;  but Republican ads just blare out headlines about "cutting Medicare by $600 billion" and depriving seniors of their health care.

We have to do better at countering these negative ads.    Repubs got in early and often and louder -- and they have conditioned people's minds to equate "Obamacare" with all things evil.

Ralph