Tentative good news for Democrats in the South

Recent polls are showing that senate races in three southern states are competitive:   Arkansas, Kentucky, and Georgia.

In Arkansas, Sen. David Pryor has been thought to be the most vulnerable of incumbent senators seeking re-election.   However, he is currently leading his likely Republican opponent by about 10%.    He is running against a Tea Party favorite, and the trend is against such extremists that lost seats for the Republicans in 2012.

Georgia's is an open seat left by retiring Saxby Chambliss.    There is a crowded Republican primary field, but Democrat Michelle Nunn polls ahead of all but one, and is tied with him, in some polls.   As the daughter of former senator Sam Nunn, she has name recognition and access to big donors;   in addition she has led the largest volunteer organization in the country, an outgrowth of her own founded Volunteer Atlanta and former President George H. W. Bush's Points of Light.

Kentucky would be a WOW pickup, because it would get rid of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.    Alison Lundergren Grimes, herself from an important Kentucky Democratic political family, is running even or slightly ahead of McConnell in polls.   For a powerful, long-time incumbent, that is bad news.    McConnell is a wily politician with tricks up his sleeve, but he is also on the wrong side of Obamacare in a state that has the most successful state-run insurance exchange.

Another southern race may be about to tip to the Democratic incumbent:   Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) had been another of the "most vulnerable" incumbents;   but the increasing success of the Affordable Care Act is playing to her advantage.   Her opponent, Speaker of the N. C. House, has been advertising that he "single-handedly" blocked expansion of Medicaid in the state.    Now Hagan has come out with a full-throated endorsement of the expansion. 

In fact, support for the ACA may become the best campaign tool for all of these Democrats.   Republicans have lost on one campaign strategy after another -- gay marriage, Obamacare -- and now they're having to fall back on what might turn out to be the biggest circus of all:   the Select Committee investigating ONCE AGAIN, BENGHAZI.    Watch for this to turn out to be a huge mistake for Republicans.

So -- losing the senate is beginning to seem less likely.   But it will all come down to whose supporters actually vote.    Republicans know this;   why else are they so intent on passing obstructive voting laws?   Democrats know it too;  but will they be energized enough without a presidential race to excite their voters?

Ralph