As of May 9, 2014, there are 17 states and the District of Columbia in which same-sex marriage is now legal. The roster includes mostly the more liberal states: all the New England states, plus California, Maryland, Delaware, Minnesota, New York, New Jersey, Washington, Illinois, Iowa, New Mexico, Hawaii.
But here's the really significant thing: Within the past year, gay marriage bans have been challenged in federal courts in a raft of conservative states -- and in every case so far, federal judges have said the bans are unconstitutional. These cases are all on appeal, or will be appealed: Utah, Oklahoma, Virginia, Texas, Michigan.
The defendants of the gay marriage bans have no credible argument
any more. They keep trotting out bogus science that has been
repeatedly discredited and debunked; or else they appeal to
"tradition." They can't even claim majority disapproval any more.
Arkansas was just added to that list by a federal judge today. And a court challenge has just been filed in Georgia. With six more cases making their way to the Supreme Court, its quite likely that SCOTUS will hear one or more of these appeals next term.
And that could mean marriage equality all over the nation -- or, as some fear, it might still be a little premature for SCOTUS. I don't think so. Kennedy has been the swing vote and wrote the majority opinion of the most important gay rights cases to date -- and his vote is all we need to join the four liberals.
I wouldn't be surprised if John Roberts might even join the liberals. If they overturn their lower courts' decisions and uphold bans on gay marriage at this point, the court would lose a lot of credibility -- at a time when this is already a problem for the Roberts Court because of its tilt toward the business community. Roberts does have a stake in the general reputation of his court. Look how he bent himself into a legal pretzel to retain the Affordable Care Act.
Ralph
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