"For the first time, a large fraction of the world's fossil fuels could be replaced at a lower cost by clean energy, with today's renewable technologies and prices. . . . Early awareness of that reality is driving major energy growth markets to look past the fossil fuel monopoly of the 20th century. . . ."On the other hand,
The newly elected Indian government has promised to provide roof-top solar energy units to 400 million citizens. The Chinese government has signaled its intent to cap CO2 emissions in the coming five years.
". . . Barclay's Bank recently downgraded the entire U.S. utility sector in fear that it would not respond to the disruptive challenge of distributed solar."But the opportunity is there, if only we will take it. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance projections, use of coal in developed countries will decline by almost one-third by 2030. With the rise of electric motors and natural gas for transportation, we are approaching the possibility of moving beyond oil as our chief source to move us and our things around. Goldman Sachs projects that "with intelligent policy support -- not subsidies -- 40 percent of the US light duty fleet would [run on electricity] by 2050."
As encouraging as all this sounds, it is not enough to deal with the climate problems we face. We have so far to go, and it will require governmental incentives, supportive policies, and intelligent thinking, We have no room for political rivalry or destructive profit competition.
It can be managed and even profitable, but it will require intelligence and cooperation. Investors must be convinced to put their money into development of renewable energy production -- not expanding coal power plants and drilling for more fossil fuels.
Unfortunately, none of that seems to have much clout in Washington these days. But it is the first glimmer of good news in a long time of what sounds like an angle that might appeal to Republicans -- i.e. being able to replace fossil fuel energy at a lower cost.
Ralph
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