What will happen in Ferguson if the Grand Jury does NOT indict Officer Wilson?

Two weeks after the unarmed Michael Brown was gunned down in the street by a white police officer, some semblance of calm has returned to the community of Ferguson.   A grand jury has begun hearing evidence in order to decide whether to indict Officer Wilson.

I am growing increasingly concerned as to what will be the reaction in Ferguson if Wilson is not indicted.    Not that I want an innocent man to be indicted.   But a grand jury's role is not to decide the innocence/guilt question;  it is to decide if there is probable cause to have a trial, which will then render a verdict on whether he is guilty.   That is a much lower bar of proof than a trial to establish guilt;  rules of testimony and of evidence are quite less strict.

From the incomplete evidence we have, the community -- and, I admit, I too -- are already convinced that there is probable cause for a trial.  But I also think that there is at least a 50/50 chance that he will not be indicted.

Why?   Because the bar is very high to prove that Wilson violated the police guidelines for justifiable shooting of a suspect.   The guidelines are very detailed, but there is also a lot of leeway for considering the degree of threat the suspect represents (if he actually assaulted the officer), even how big he is (Brown was 6'3" and heavy built), whether his behavior seemed  irrational due to drugs (perhaps), etc.   

In addition, there is leeway favoring the officer who must make a split-second decision in a fast-escalating altercation, and even his subjective evaluation of the situation at the time.   Not what hindsight proved to be true, but what it seemed to the officer at the time.   With all those possible routes, it's unlikely they will fail to find one as a way out of an indictment. 

Other factors that lead me to say 50/50:  Because of leaked information that suggests the police are trying to slant the case in Wilson's favor.   Because the Attorney General has a personal, deeply emotional reason for being sympathetic toward police officers under attack (his father was a policeman killed in line of duty).   And because the AG does not think that biases him but rather that it makes him sympathetic to victims.    And because, although the town of Ferguson is 68% black, the grand jury hearing evidence is 75% white, which is technically proper since Ferguson is part of St. Louis County, which is 75% white.    But that will add to the feeling that it is not fair.

And, lastly, because it has been leaked by the prosecutor's office that Officer Wilson will be invited to testify at the grand jury hearing.   This is almost unprecedented.   He has thus far not written an incident report -- or at least they have chosen not to release it -- while he has the benefit of hearing all the witness interviews on TV and can thus tailor his testimony to account for what witnesses have said about what happened and to the forensic evidence found.   In addition, in a grand jury hearing, as I understand it, he would not be cross-examined.   The community has no trust in the system or in this particular Attorney General, who will choose the prosecutor and oversee the case.

Are those enough reasons to be concerned that the turmoil we have seen in the streets of Ferguson these last two weeks may be nothing compared to the violence that will erupt if the grand jury does not grant a trial in what appears to be a completely unwarranted shooting of an unarmed black teenager by a white police officer?

Yes, I'm afraid so.   Because all the community has to go on are these two facts:   (1) an unarmed black teenager was walking peacefully down the street;  and (2) less than three minutes later he had been shot by a white policeman -- and they left his body lying in the street for four hours.    No fine points of law, or grand jury proceedings, or "backing up our police officers in difficult situations" will satisfy in this climate of outrage at racial injustice and police violence that have been decades in building.

Ralph 

[Added later on Monday]:   The Washington Post is reporting that Officer Darrell Wilson, who killed Michael Brown, had been hired by the Ferguson Police Department about three years ago, after spending his rookie year with the Jefferson, MO Police Department.   Race relations were so bad between Jefferson police and the black community that the city council felt it necessary to fire the entire department -- including Wilson -- and start over.   

 Wilson has had a clean record at Ferguson during these last three years and even earned a commendation.   Until he enounctered Michael Brown's apparent defiance and aggressive behavior.  Nothing that we know yet, however, would suggest to me that shooting to kill was the only thing for Wilson to do.