Republicans -- a dying breed ?

Daniel J. McGraw political writer for Politico says that the "old" in  "Grand Old Party" has become descriptive, not just historic.

McGraw writes:

"The Republican Party voter is old—and getting older, and as the adage goes, there are two certainties in life: Death and taxes. Right now, both are enemies of the GOP and they might want to worry more about the former than the latter. . . .  [In 2016] Hundreds of thousands of their traditional core supporters won’t be able to turn out to vote at all.  The party’s core is dying off by the day. . . . 

"[F]ar more Republicans than Democrats have died since the 2012 elections. . . .  [T]he trend could have a real effect in certain states, and make a battleground states like Florida and Ohio even harder for the Republican Party to capture."

McGraw calculated from 2012 exit polls and mortality rates that roughly 453,000 more Republican voters have died than have Democratic voters.

William Frey of the Brookings Institute points out that, "millennials (born 1981 to 1997) now are larger in numbers than baby boomers ([born] 1946 to 1964), and how they vote will make the big difference.   And the data says that if Republicans focus on economic issues and stay away from social ones like gay marriage, they can make serious inroads with millennials.”

McGraw says that's not too promising, given that about 6 million new voters will be eligible in 2016;  and exit polling in the last two presidential elections indicate that this age group splits about 65-35 in favor of Democrats.  

"If that split holds true in 2016, Democrats will have picked up a two million vote advantage among first-time voters. These numbers combined with the voter death data puts Republicans at an almost 2.5 million voter disadvantage going into 2016."

Hold down the excitement, though, and don't back off on the hard work of campaigning.    Demographic numbers and the issues are important factors;  but there's a long way to go until 2016, with many opportunities to screw up, as well as obscene amounts of money for negative ads -- plus the debates.

Ralph