Why we NEED immigration

Bloomberg Businessweek featured a cover story (Aug. 9) by Charles Kenny titled "Immigrants to the Rescue."   It is a surprising reality check in the midst of all the hyper-demonizing of the immigrant population by Donald Trump and other candidates.

Kenny lays out the problem:  
"If other demographic forces don't come into play, women need to give birth to 2.1 children on average to keep population constant. . . .  Across the wealthiest members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the fertility rate has dropped from 2.98 children per woman in 1960 to 1.76 in 1990 and 1.66 today, well below replacement level.  If nothing changes, there will be a considerable shift toward smaller, much older populations throughout the industrialized world.  Retirees don't work, but they do consume -- drawing pensions and requiring health care.  That creates a real challenge for how to support them.

" . . . . There are lots of people around the world who want to come to the countries that have the lowest birthrates. . . .   Letting more of them in is one of the few effective tools we have to raise the birthrate. . . . 

"According to Pew Research Center data, the foreign-born in the U.S. account for 13% of the total population but 23% of the births. . . .  Immigration can also help reduce the ratio of retirees to workers.  Migrants tend to arrive as young workers rather than babies or pensioners. . . .   That means a recipient country gets the instant benefit of a larger working-age population without the expense and delay of rearing workers as children. . . . 

"More immigration is both the cheapest and most effective response to the challenge of a shrinking, aging population.  It's the only plausible solution that appears powerful enough to counteract declining birthrates among native populations in industrialized nations."

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What about the issue of criminal behavior in immigrants so vividly brought up by one of the Republican presidential candidates?   Not true, says Kenny -- as well as other studies previously quoted here in ShrinkRap.   In fact, the crime rate is lower, not higher.

Kenny further discusses attempts made in some European countries to increase the birthrate by making child-rearing easier with all kinds of government support and free facilities for child care.   It may be wonderful for those who do have children;   but the programs have not been effective in increasing birthrate.

Interesting idea here.   Could be another challenging question to bring up at the debate.   We tend to talk about our aging population as a problem with no solution other than somehow reducing Social Security and Medicare payments.    Well, here's a different solution -- but it won't be popular with the conservative politicos.

Ralph