Sunday, September 13, 2015

And then there were 16 . . .

Rick Perry has ended his campaign because he has run out of money . . . and supporters.  From front runner for several weeks in the 2012 race, Perry's current standing is just 1% in a Quinnipiac poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers released yesterday.

Some pundits are now predicting that as many as seven or eight of the crowd will be gone before the Iowa caucuses.  Starting at the bottom, this would include:  Gillmore (0%), Pataki (0%), Santoruum (1%), Graham (1%), Jindal (2%) and possibly Christie (1%) or Walker (3%), depending on how each does in the second debate this week.

We keep thinking that, once the number of candidates is reduced and the anti-Trump vote is not so divided, then he won't be such a front-runner.   But the combined poll percentages of those nine candidates above adds up to only 9%.

Look at it this way:  The non-politicians (Trump 27%, Carson 21%, and Fiorino 5%) have a cumulative majority of 53% -- against the 42% cumulative vote for all the politicians.

Interesting message there.    Of course -- I keep reminding myself -- it's still early.   Closer to the time, voters may start to consider things like general election electability and whether the person would actually be a good president.

Or maybe not.

Ralph

No comments:

Post a Comment