For the fifth time, predicting the demise of the Trump campaign. Probably wrong again, too.

First, there was the awful comment about Mexicans in his announcement speech.   Then the attack on John McCain's heroism and the fight he picked with Megyn Kelly.   Then refusing to say he would support the GOP nominee.    Each of those four can't-survive-this-one moments came and went -- and The Donald's poll numbers only went up.

So it is with not much conviction that I predict, for the fifth time, a coming demise of the Trump campaign.   But this one is different, because it's not based on something outrageous he said but on turning conventional and, therefore, boring.    And, as someone said:   "The one thing Donald Trump cannot be is boring."

So, it may take a while, but let's see.  What's the evidence that he has changed direction?

1.  He made a big show, belatedly, of signing the pledge to support the eventual Republican nominee for president and not to run as a third party candidate.

2.  He has begun serious campaign organizing and setting up local grassroots organizations in early primary states.

3.  He has begun fundraising appeals for small donors, saying he doesn't need the money but it gives the people an opportunity to participate in his campaign.

4.   He has toned down his rhetoric and avoids being goaded into making outrageous statements.

5.  He has developed a stump speech with five major talking points that he sticks to.   He avoids being pulled "off message."   In the past, his rally speeches were spontaneous riffs on whatever struck him at the moment.

6.  Since he threw the Latino journalist out of a press conference, he's toned down the way he treats challenging questioners.  No more insults.

One reporter following him on the campaign trail admitted that it's beginning to be a bit boring . . . like all the others.

So, is this the beginning of the end for Trump?    If he becomes a conventional politician, will he lose his appeal?   Trump and boring do not belong in the same sentence.

I'm not alone in seeing it this way.   Rachel Maddow responded to the tilt toward conventionality this way:  “Honestly, what this looks like strategically is a giant screwup -- a beautiful, giant, classy, huge screwup.”   Maybe he'll get bored himself . . . and quit.


Ralph