First post-debate poll

Here are some results from the first post-debate poll released by HuffPost/YouGov, based on 1000 respondents of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents (DLI) queried on Oct 14-15.   Of those, 67% had either watched at least part of the debate or watched clips and analysis later on news shows.

1.  As to who won the debate, Democratic voters gave it to Clinton 55% over Sanders 22%, while the DLIs said the winner was Clinton 35% and Sanders 26%.

2.  Preference for Clinton as the party nominee among registered Democrats (note this did not include Independents) rose from 44% to 52% following the debate.   This came mostly from a decrease in the number of undecideds, suggesting she quelled the doubts some had had about her.

Looking at the details brings out some interesting findings.

3. How were opinions of candidates changed by the debate?
Questions asked whether their opinion of each candidate had improved (+) or declined (-) after the debate.   Democrats' responses:

Clinton         +50%     -12%     net   +38%
Sanders       +44%     -   5%      net  +39%
O'Malley      +21%     -   9%      net   +12%
Webb           +  6%      -25%      net   - 19%
Chafee         +  6%      -25%      net   - 19%

Those figures include both Democrats and Independents.   Looking at D-L Independent opinions alone:   Clinton's net change goes from  +38% to -14% while Sanders went from +39% to +4%.

So it sounds like much of the DLI vote is for Sanders or at least for someone other than Clinton.   That's important.   She needs to win them over.

4.  Men vs Women Support for Clinton:  The other interesting -- and, to me, puzzling -- finding was that in this poll Hillary Clinton had significantly stronger support among men than among women -- especially among Independents. 

55% of men -- and 44% of women -- prefer Clinton to be the nominee.  Of the Dem-leaning Independents, 53% of men and only 29% of women prefer Clinton.

What does this mean?   My guess is that the Dem-leaning Independents are in large part Sanders supporters.  This is borne out by looking at the breakdown of results in the question of who would you choose as the nominee: 

All respondents:   Clinton 49%, Someone else 35%, Not sure 16%.
Dem-leaning Indendents:  Clinton 29%, Someone else 48%, Not sure 23%.  

Conclusions:  Both Clinton and Sanders had a great night, with Clinton standing out as the more experienced debater and more broadly knowledgeable about the issues.   Sanders introduced himself, his policy ideas, and his passion to a much wider audience and wound up with a boost in favorable opinions about him.   The poll supports the idea that his biggest problem remains fear that he can't win.

As I interpret this poll, preferring Clinton or Sanders as the nominee does not mean that the respondent would not vote for the other one once nominated.   It does not necessarily mean they would vote Republican, but they might be less likely to vote.

Within the narrow field of progressive Democrats, Clinton and Sanders bring surprisingly significant policy differences that are worth discussing.   If subsequent debates remain on this high level of civil discourse, we can have an educational discussion of real issues.

As to the other three debaters:   O'Malley got better known, but his performance can't be called a breakthrough;  so the question remains why he's needed in the race.   As for Webb and Chafee, thanks for your interest and goodbye.

And, as I keep reminding myself and us all:   There's still time for someone to get pregnant and have a baby before this election next November -- totally unrelated, of course, but a vivid way of emphasizing how long off it is.

My other reminder ad nauseum:  Do you want a Republican to appoint the next three SCOTUS justices?    Worry less about which one and concentrate on electing the Democrat who can win the general election.

Ralph