Where the presidential primaries stand:

Republicans:    The race is still a chaotic mess;   but it does seem to be sorting itself into three groups.   These latest poll numbers are based on an average of eight polls taken between 9.17 and 10/1.

   1.  The winner will probably emerge from these top six:   Trump  (22.8%), Carson (17.3%), Fiorino (11.0%), Rubio (9.5%), Bush (8.3%), Cruz (6.1%).

   2.  Not impossible to emerge if he hits a home run in the next debate, but that's unlikely:  Kasich (3.1%), Huckabee (2.8%), Christie (2.6%), Paul (2.4%).

   3.  Not a chance:   Jindal, Santarum, Graham, Pataki, and Gilmore, each polling less than 1%.

The most recent poll of those averaged was done by IBD/TIPP, which has an enviable record of accuracy in recent presidential elections.   Therefore, it's finding may be significant:   Carson (24%) pulling ahead of Trump (17%), with Rubio only 6 points behind at 17%.  This may be what prompted Trump to say that, if his polls numbers slip and show he can't win, he will get out.   He likes to cut his losses and said:  "Why would I stay around if I'm losing?"   Some think, as I do, that this may be Trump beginning to pave his exit road.  My guess is that it would then turn into a horse race between Carson and Rubio -- unless the next debate brings a real surprise.

*   *   *

Democrats:   The story so far has been Bernie Sanders exciting voters and Clinton disappointing voters, although she still has a comfortable lead.   If Biden gets in, he presents a clear threat, and it becomes a three way race.

Real Clear Politics' average of nine polls, taken between 9/17 and 10/4, gives Clinton 41.6%, Sanders 25.2%, Biden 18.9%, and Webb, O'Malley, and Chafee each less than 1%.   However, the latest Public Policy Polling, taken between 10/1 and 10/4, without Biden:  Clinton 51% to Sanders 28%.

Just this week, Clinton has -- according to her plan from the beginning -- started the more active phase of her campaign.   She's been speaking forcefully and taking positions on important issues, giving interviews, and doing a hilarious, self-mocking skit on Saturday Night Live, which humanized her and showed her comic side.  She even did a credible, mocking impersonation of Donald Trump.  

It will be much more interesting to see polls taken after the first Democratic debate on October 13th.  This will also reflect a couple of weeks of Clinton's more active campaigning.

Ralph