In a recent Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll, Hillary Clinton led Bernie Sanders by big margins. When all Democrats were considered, Clinton led by 58% to 31% -- 27 points. But when "likely voters" alone were considered, she led 72% to 23% -- a huge 49 points.
The significance turns on how these pollsters define "likely voters." Usually a big factor is whether they have voted in past elections. If that's the case here, that could mean either of two things:
1. Sanders is attracting a lot of people who have been disillusioned with prior choices and didn't vote -- but will come out in strong force to vote for Sanders.
Or
2. Sanders' supporters are people who get fired up by rhetoric but won't follow through by actually voting.
Of course, with a lead so strong and persistent as Clinton has, it may not make much difference. She's winning, even if every one who attends a Sanders rally or sends him money does actually vote for him.
Again, to state my own preference: I wish we lived in a time and place where Sanders' views and policies would be mainstream enough for him to get elected. I've even contributed to his campaign, because I want him in the race pushing Hillary to the left. But I'm not convinced that he can win a general election.
My bottom line is that we have to elect a Democrat -- for the Supreme Court, if for nothing else. I respect my progressive friends who scorn such an unprincipled stance; I encourage them to go all out for Sanders. If the consequences of a Republican victory were not so dire and so long-lasting for SCOTUS, I might be with them.
Ralph
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