The one most predictive trait of Trump voters

It's not education, race, income, religion, or gender.

It's  authoritarianism. 

Matthew MacWilliams has a political communications firm and is writing his dissertation on authoritarianism as a graduate student in political science at U. Mass at Amherst.    His research has found that "a single statistically significant variable predicts whether a voter supports Trump . . . .  authoritarianism."    And, because of the prevalence of people with authoritarian inclinations, he predicts that Trump's fan base will continue to grow. 

MacWilliams conducted a national poll last month of 1,800 registered voters across the political spectrum.   Only two of the variables he measured (such as religion, age, sex, ideology, religiosity) were statistically significant in predicting whom they support for president:   authoritarianism and fear of terrorism.   Authoritarianism was by far the more significant.

Since Nazi Germany, authoritarianism as a political factor has been widely studied.   One finding is that "they respond aggressively to outsiders, especially when they feel threatened.  From pledging to 'make America great again' by building a wall on the border to promising to close mosques and ban Muslims from visiting the United States, Trump is playing directly to authoritarian inclinations."

Previous national surveys have shown that authoritarians exists in Republicans, Democrats, and Independents, although they have been steadily moving to the Republican Party "since Democrats embraced civil rights, gay rights, employment protections and other political positions valuing freedom and equality."

One way of measuring authoritarianism, which MacWilliams used in his survey, was to ask these four questions, all pertaining to child-rearing:  "whether it is more important . . . to have a child who is respectful or independent; obedient or self-reliant; well-behaved or considerate; and well-mannered or curious. Respondents who pick the first option in each of these questions are strongly authoritarian."

MacWilliams says that "Donald Trump was the only candidate—Republican or Democrat—whose support among authoritarians was statistically significant."   He writes: 

"And in a general election, Trump’s strongman rhetoric will surely appeal to some of the 39 percent of independents in my poll who identify as authoritarians and the 17 percent of self-identified Democrats who are strong authoritarians.

"What’s more, the number of Americans worried about the threat of terrorism is growing. In 2011, [political scientist Marc] Hetherington published research finding that non-authoritarians respond to the perception of threat by behaving more like authoritarians . . . mean[ing] more voters are susceptible to Trump’s message about protecting Americans. In my survey, 52 percent of those voters expressing the most fear that another terrorist attack will occur in the United States in the next 12 months were non-authoritarians—ripe targets for Trump’s message.

"Take activated authoritarians from across the partisan spectrum and the growing cadre of threatened non-authoritarians, then add them to the base of Republican general election voters, and the potential electoral path to a Trump presidency becomes clearer. . .

"Conditions are ripe for an authoritarian leader to emerge. Trump is seizing the opportunity. . . . 

"It is time for those who would appeal to our better angels to take his insurgency seriously and stop dismissing his supporters as a small band of the dispossessed. Trump support is firmly rooted in American authoritarianism and, once awakened, it is a force to be reckoned with. . . ."

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Thanks to Politico.com for the article and quotes from Matthew MacWilliams.    I would add that the less robust predictive trait of fear of terrorism only adds to Donald Trump's appeal.   He hits both the authoritarian and fear buttons better than anyone else.   That is really scary.

I've been saying for some time that the Democrats should easily win this general election -- UNLESS there is a major terrorist attack on our country between now and the election.   Although I didn't identify the key explanation in terms of authoritarianism, that is exactly what was implicit in my concern:   that people would flock to the one who stoked the fear and then shouted loudest that he would protect us with his simplistic pseudo-solutions.

This study provides statistical concurrence.  It's a scary prospect, but it's better to be clear about what is behind Trump's appeal.

Ralph