Voters fed up with the GOP name-calling?

Here's some evidence suggesting that the Thursday night debate name-calling squabbles between Donald Trump and Marco Rubio hurt them both, and that Ted Cruz was the beneficiary, at least in the Louisiana primary, where we have this before/after data.

Chart from Aaron Bycoffe, reproduced along with data below from @NateSilver538.  Numbers are not polls but actual votes that were cast in early voting, compared with votes that were cast on election day, which came two days after the debate.   The two sets of votes were, of course, combined for the actual final count.

Early vote          Candidate        Election Day

    46.7%                 Trump                41.4%
    22.9%                   Cruz                   37.8%    
    20.1%                  Rubio                   11.2%
       3.7%                 Kasich                   6.4%

The drop in Rubio's vote was far greater than Trump's, suggesting that Rubio voters didn't like Rubio descending to Trump's level of name-calling and talking over his opponent;  but that Trump's core supporters don't mind his doing it.  The surge in Cruz's votes from before to after debate voters is striking (+15%).   Or, if you want to look at it in terms of percent increase, Kasich's increase was actually a higher percent increase than Cruz's (73% vs 65).

In terms of significance going forward, combining Cruz's surge to a strong second place finish in Louisiana with his blow-out wins in Kansas and Maine and his close second in Kentucky, it was a terrific day for Ted Cruz, with Rubio the big loser.   What does this do to the #NeverTrump movement?    Obviously, Rubio is not the answer.  And the consensus had been that Trump would be preferable to Cruz.   But that was before we knew as much as we now do about Trump's shady business dealings.

Another factor to consider is that Cruz is not favored by the election calendar coming up (Michigan, Ohio, Florida) where "very conservatives" are less a factor.  But then how do you explain Cruz's success in Maine?    If Kasich does well in Michigan and wins his home state Ohio, then it may become a three-way race between Trump, Cruz, and Kasich.   Rubio will probably stay in through Florida anyway.   And what if Rubio pulls out a win there, with a winner-take-all-delegates in the biggest swing state?   The problem is that Rubio is behind in the Florida polls, and his bad day on Saturday won't help.

I also think that the sharp, fact-based confrontations of Trump by the debate moderators, Chris Wallace and Megyn Kelly, must have had some negative effect on Trump's numbers.  The biggest numerical factor in the data above, however, is less a decline in Trump's numbers but a shift of voters from Rubio to Cruz, with a few going to Kasich. 

Aside from the momentous meaning of the outcome in November (see ShrinkRap, Mar 4, "A new worry"), this is a fascinating political process to watch unfolding.

Ralph