Wednesday, June 1, 2016

The markets speak on Donald Trump's candidacy

Interesting paradox regarding Donald Trump's presidential candidacy and the free market, which Republicans tout as their political philosophy.

A report out Friday suggested that notoriously skittish stock markets seem unaffected by the possibility of a Trump presidency.   They based this on the fact that the stock markets showed barely a change in the week following his latest delegate wins, giving him the required 1237 delegates.

Now that could be interpreted several ways.   One could be that stock investors don't think it would affect the economy very much one way or the other.   Or it could be that they don't think Trump will win, so why let it affect what you buy and sell?

A bit more dramatic data is supplied bu the UK's Daily Mail: 
Reservations at Trump hotels have plummeted by more than half since Donald Trump began his presidential campaign.   This is based on data from the travel firm Hipmunk.

Bookings have declined by 74% at the Trump Solo in New York and 71% in Las Vagas to the less severe 17% in Atlantic City and a slight increase of 4% at the Trump Hotel Waikiki Beach Walk.
Do we dare take this as an encouraging sign, akin to the market driven polls?  Whatever, I think not wanting to stay in a Trump hotel is more of a negative vote than what stocks people buy.   One is an investment decision.   The other could mean:   "I just don't want to have anything to do with this man and what he stands for -- so I don't want to stay in his hotel."

Ralph

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