The poll reported the overall result from the four days of polling, which gave Clinton a 7% lead in Wisconsin. But they also broke down the results, day by day, for Thursday, Friday, and the combined Saturday/Sunday.
Thursday Friday Sat/Sunday
Clinton 40 44 49
Trump 41 38 30
Over the course of four days, with the tape released in the middle, Trump went from plus 1% to minus 19% -- a 20 point reversal. It may reflect some immediate shock effect and could swing back a bit. We also don't know whether the same demographic balance was polled each day, which wouldn't matter in the overall result but would on a daily basis -- i.e., men could have been over-represented one day, women another. But it is undeniable that it is a dramatic reversal and a solid overall lead of 7% for Clinton.
In unrelated prediction ratings: Predictwise, using market-based, betting methods, puts Clinton's chance of winning is 91%. In the Huffington Post computer-simulations, she wins 91.6% of the time. Nate Silver's 538 predict model is more cautious. He gives Clinton only an 85.6% chance of winning. Only. Ha !!
In unrelated prediction ratings: Predictwise, using market-based, betting methods, puts Clinton's chance of winning is 91%. In the Huffington Post computer-simulations, she wins 91.6% of the time. Nate Silver's 538 predict model is more cautious. He gives Clinton only an 85.6% chance of winning. Only. Ha !!
Ralph
No comments:
Post a Comment