Whatever happened to the political wisdom: "It's the economy, stupid"?

Remember during the Bill Clinton campaign for president that his campaign strategist James Carville summed it all up with that pithy phrase:   "It's the economy, stupid."

I've been wondering about that, when we talk about the blue wave expected in November -- yet the economy is doing very well by most measures.   True, real wages for workers have barely increased, while the wealthy have raked in fortunes on top of their fortunes.

Still, by all other measures, the economy is somewhere between healthy and booming.  Unemployment is only 3.9%, the gross domestic product is soaring to new heights, and the stock market breaks new records week by week.

So, why are we so confident that the Democrats will take control of the House and possibly the Senate too?    Should we be this confident?   Or should we pay attention to James Carville's warning?

The first, short answer has been offered that Carville was referring to presidential year elections, not to midterms.   The president tends to get rewarded or blamed for the economy, more than congress.

Second, there's much being said and written -- at least in the liberal media -- that puts the blame squarely on the unpopularity of Donald J. Trump.    His approval ratings are dropping . . . fast.   And party leaders are attributing this to Trump's inflammatory moves on immigration, especially the separation of parents from their children, and on Trump's inexplicably favoring of Vladimir Putin over our close allies.

Oklahoma Republican Congressman Tom Cole told the New York Times that "This is very much a referendum on the president."   He added, however:  "If we had to fight this campaign on what we accomplished in Congress and on the economy, I think we'd almost certainly keep our majority."

The Times also quoted a leading Republican pollster, Glen Bolger, saying:  "People think the economy is doing well -- but that's not what they're voting on -- they're voting on the chaos of the guy in the White House."

It shows in what the Republican campaigns are focusing on.   Instead of being able to crow about the 3.9% unemployment, their campaign is a negative one of slamming Democrats.

With Paul Manafort's flipping to cooperate with the special counsel in a plea deal just announced, shouldn't we be even more confident that Trump will be dealing with even more negative media coverage?

Let's hope so.    I'm still reluctant to ignore James Carville.   I'd be more comfortable if a couple of those economic indicators start to reverse before November 6th.   I'm not wishing for anyone to suffer regarding jobs or wages -- but we're expecting the good numbers to start reversing soon -- so I'm just wishing for it to be noticeable before, rather than after, the election.

James Carville, himself, had a simpler explanation.   According to the Times:   "He [Trump] has made himself bigger than the economy.   Every conversation starts and ends with Trump."

Ralph