photo by Associated Press
President Trump has certainly thrown himself into the final few weeks of the campaign for the midterm elections. Polls open in eastern states in about 31 hours from the time of this posting. Some 28 million people have already cast their ballots in early voting. This is almost 10 million more than at a comparable time in the 2014 midterms early voting.
But what is the message that the president is proclaiming -- by tweet and by rally?
"Be afraid." Be very afraid of the Democrats and what they will do if they take control of the House. And perhaps the real message is to himself: Be very afraid of what will happen in 2020 to my prospects for a second term if the Democrats get control of even one House of Congress.
Because that will give them subpoena power and investigative power. And they will expose what Robert Mueller finds -- and they will hold hearings and lay it all out there on CSPAN.
And, given that, what are the issues that Trump is emphasizing? Not the things he could legitimately call the successes of his time in office: an economy that, for the short term anyway, is looking good. Unemployment so low that need for workers is becoming a problem.
The tax cut for corporations and the wealthy didn't do much trickling down for the middle class and working people's wages (netting roughly $120 a month) -- but it sure did please his donors and friends. For example, casino magnate Sheldon Adelson's businesses got a $670 million windfall from the tax cut in the first quarter alone -- set to go over $2 billion for the year. So Adelson has rewarded his Republican friends in Congress with over $100 million in donations for the midterms.
The discrepancy between what Sheldon Edelson got from the tax cut and what his kitchen workers got was somewhere in the range of 1.87 million dollars to 1 dollar.
Let's compare what Trump does seem to think is important to focus on with what people say are the issues that are important to them in how they chose to vote.
A recent Washington Post/ABC News poll asked people just that: what issues are important influences on how you will vote. Here are the results.
Health Care 78%
The Economy 76%
Reducing divisiveness 69%
Taxes 66%
Border Security 59%
It's almost as if Trump turned the chart upside down. His #1 topic to rev up his base crowd is border security and the "hordes" that he sees invading our country -- the bottom of the people's list, border security. Embedded in that, whether the pollsters meant to or not, is racism. A lacerating, xenophobic, rejection of the Other as inferior, violent, diseased. It's an invasion by those "others," not only taking over our way of life, but destroying it. I'm not sure Trump is racist; but he is using racist memes to stir up his base, for crass political purposes, no matter who gets hurt.
And it's not even true. The narrative of the caravan, the "hordes" of people banded together is a dangerous exaggeration created by the Trump administration for political purposes. It's all part of con game to paint these refugees as dangerous and diseased and set on doing us harm --- all to stoke the fear of Trump's political base for political purposes.
As to taxes, he has made the facile promise of a 10% tax cut to the middle class -- with no plan or any hope of getting congress to do that. It's an empty promise for the election; nothing more. And he certainly is doing nothing to reduce divisiveness in our society; rather, he's the Divider in Chief.
As to the economy, he does occasionally mention how well it's doing -- mainly to give himself credit for the trend that began during Obama's term and, in general has failed to fulfill the promise with which Republicans sold their trillion dollar tax cut for corporations and the wealthy. So they keep that one pretty quiet. Instead, Trump trots out the empty promise of a 10% tax cut for the middle class, while Paul Ryan talks about having to cut entitlements because of the huge deficit that has resulted from their other tax cut. It seems there one message for the campaign rallies, an opposite one for congress.
As to the people's #1 choice, Medical Care, at least for the duration of the campaign, most Republicans and Trump himself have stopped promising to overturn Obamacare. Instead, they're making "Medicare for All" the boogey-man. Now they're giving lip service to "saving coverage for pre-existing conditions" and even having the chutzpah to accuse Democrats of endangering it. But Medicare for All? Too expensive; and, even worse, it will lead to Socialism.
Trump's upside-down rhetoric from what people say is most important to them is odd. Or maybe not. What Trump is really selling is fear. And the promise that only he can take care of them. It's the tactic of nascent fascism and the rising dictator. So he's picking issues that he can use most easily to scare people. And making empty promises that he can't keep on things that benefit most Americans.
Will the con work? We'll know soon. This election is the most important one at least since 1968 -- and perhaps ever further back than that. Because this is, in large part, a referendum on democracy itself. Do we want to keep it? If so, then we have to make some changes from the direction we're heading.
We are at a crisis point. We, the voters, will decide.
Ralph
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