Will Trump change his #2 for 2020?

Since the bad news for the Trump Party in the midterm election, President Trump has been asking around about keeping Mike Pence as his running mate for 2020.   Or, more specifically, he's been asking, "Is Mike Pence loyal?"'

When the question was posed to Trump by a reporter recently, with Pence standing nearby, Trump did this little song and dance of turning to Pence and asking him point blank:   "Mike, will you be my running mate?"   Pence stood up, raised his hand and nodded -- and Trump pretended to be very pleased.

But, according to recent New York Times reporting by Maggie Haberman and Katie Rogers, in private it's a different story.  "In one conversation after another he has asked aides and advisers a pointed question:   Is Mike Pence loyal?"

Haberman and Rogers continue:  "Mr. Trump has repeated the question so many times that he has alarmed some of his advisers.   The president has not openly suggested dropping Mr. Pence from the ticket . . . but the advisers say those kinds of questions usually indicate that he has grown irritated with someone. . . .

"Within the White House, most people he has talked to have assured the president that Mr. Pence has been a committed soldier . . . .  But some advisers, primarily outside the White House, have suggested to him that while Mr. Pence remains loyal, he may have used up his utility.   [They] argue that Mr. Trump has forged his own relationship with evangelical voters, and that what he might benefit from more is a running mate who could help him with women voters, who disapprove of him in large numbers. . . .  

"Mr. Trump has kept close counsel about whether he is seriously considering making a change to the ticket, or simply poll-testing advisers as the campaign begins."

The authors also spoke with Dan Pfeiffer, former communications director for President Obama, who said that such questions are usually raised when contemplating a re-election campaign;  but a change "almost never happens."   Pfeiffer added that the electoral significance of the VP nominee "is one of the most overrated things in U.S. politics, particularly in a re-election, which is almost always a referendum" on the president.

Robert P. Jones, chief executive of the Public Religion Research Institute, points out that, although Mr. Pence may have served as "a validating figure for white evangelicals, recent research showed that 7 out of 10 white evangelicals who identify with or lean toward the Republican Party would prefer Mr. Trump over any alternative Republican candidate in 2020."

And presumably that would include Pence himself, if he should prove to be disloyal enough to run against Trump in a primary.

Which brings us to Nikki Haley, former popular governor of South Carolina, who has served quite credibly as Trump's Ambassador to the United Nations -- a post that she has previously announced she will be leaving at the end of this year.

To a large extent, it seems a waste of time to even be discussing this -- given the great unknown of what bad news Robert Mueller's report will have for Trump.   But, assuming that he survives politically to run in 2020, I think Nikki Haley would be his best choice as a running mate.

She's smart, politically savvy, ambitious -- and she's proven that she can exist in the Trump world without selling her soul or becoming corrupt herself.    That might not be possible in a closer relationship, such as Vice President;  and she might just be too willing to speak her own mind for Trump to tolerate.

But it could be a formidable ticket.   And I worry about it.

Ralph