This was written prior to Trump's State of the Union Speech on Tuesday night. I'll comment later on that speech and on Stacie Abrams' Democratic response.
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Of course it's way too early to talk about poll standings for the 2020 presidential election. I'm paying no attention to the current standings of the large number of Democrats declared to be running, or talking about running. The biggest factor, at this point, is mostly name recognition and overall favorable impression; but with no comparison with the large number that one may know nothing about yet.
But there is one measure that has some validity at this point -- how people feel about giving President Trump another term.
In a Monmouth University Poll conducted by telephone in late January with 735 registered voters, they found that 37% said Trump should be re-elected, while 58% would like someone new. That's an under water difference of 19 points, with a +/- 3.6% margin of error.
Among Republicans, 79% wanted him re-elected, while 94% of Democrats prefer someone else. Independent voters by 55% want a change, while 39% support Trump. When broken down into subgroups, the margin of error rises to about 5.5%.
But the overall 37-58% split is nearly identical to a similar poll taken last November.
Trump doesn't seem to realize that he cannot win without expanding his base of support; his political appeals seem primarily intended to excite the base that already supports him.
Time and again, we hear from insiders that, once Trump fixates on a particular belief, it is almost impossible to get him to change, no matter what facts or arguments are put before him.
Here's a suggestion. Don't waste the effort then. Let him go on in his delusions of glory. This is a man who just last week proclaimed that he has accomplished more in his two years as president than almost any other president -- maybe, even, he said, the most of all.
Ralph
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