Predicting the GOP field

Going out on a limb here, but here's where I see the GOP contest at present:

1. Reports just in suggest that Michele Bachmann is gaining momentum in Iowa (she was born there and lives in next-state Minnesota). In fact, in a Zogby poll taken after the debate, she had zoomed to first place -- not just in Iowa.

She appeals to the very conservative GOP base there, and is to be taken seriously, at least as a spoiler for Pawlenty. A win for her in Iowa would be a major blow to Pawlenty's plan of being the last one standing and the least objectionable alternative to Romney at the end.

2. Romney likely wins big in New Hampshire -- next door state, he was a close second to McCain in 2008, and independents can vote in either primary. Jon Huntsman might be the bigger challenger to him there. If Pawlenty doesn't win Iowa and likely won't do well in NH or SC, then he's probably out.

3. If Bachmann continues to gain in Iowa, and given the support she has in South Carolina too, then look to Rick Perry to jump in as the alternative to the more moderate Romney and Huntsman. Even more important, he would be the "Stop Bachmann" candidate; the GOP establishment is not going to let her win, and pressure will mount for Perry to jump in.

4. Coming out of those early primaries, my prediction is that it will narrow down to: Romney, Perry, Huntsman, and Bachmann. But then she'll fade when they get outside her Tea Party territory.

5. Huntsman is too "moderate" for the party in 2012, but I think he's laying groundwork for 2016.

6. Cain, Paul, Santorum will drop along the way as their niche candidacies falter.

7. Notice who I didn't even mention.

Ralph