"Myth" of the independent voter

Registered membership in both Democratic and Republican parties has been on the decline, while registered Independent voters have increased. For a while the conventional wisdom had been that these independent voters were the ones who would decide close elections. This political theory led to both parties tending to track toward the middle for the general election.

However, more recently there has been talk of this actually being a myth -- independent voters, individually, tend to be pretty consistent in voting either Democratic or Republican for president. They are not more persuadable than registered voters; they just don't want to identify with the party.

Emory political scientist Alan Abromowitz studies voting patterns. He has found that: In the three elections since 1972 that were decided by a margin of less than 5%, the candidate backed by the independent voters lost. This includes 2004, when George Bush was backed by independent voters but lost the popular vote. He won the election, however, thanks to SCOTUS and then the electoral college. So that seems a bit of an outlier.

But at the least, you could say that in 2 of those 3 elections, the independent voters backed the loser.

Whatever . . . it seems to demolish the importance of the Independent Voters as a group to be courted. And it may explain why campaigns are putting more emphasis on firing up their bases rather than appealing to the independents. You can certainly say that's what the Repubs are doing. And there's some beginning evidence that Obama's campaign is aiming to shore up its liberal base.

But -- consider this -- in an election year, when one party is clearly chasing its base even further to the right, wouldn't that be a good time for the other party to pick off the middle?

I'd say the Dems should go for both the middle and the left. In fact, everything to the left of Barry Goldwater looks to be low hanging fruit at this point. Except for the economy, stupid.

It's worth watching how they handle it.

Ralph