Nate Silver is predicting that Mitt Romney has a 76% chance of winning South Carolina and a 95% chance of winning Florida. With his tie +8 votes (a technical win) in Iowa and a decisive win in New Hampshire -- the demographic diversity of those four state wins makes him a shoo-in for the Republican nomination, barring some unforeseen cataclysm.
So how about Mittens as Obama's opponent? Well, he was long ago identified as the toughest for Obama to beat in this economy (unless Huntsman catches fire) -- but Gingrich's SuperPAC attack ads against the "job-killing" Bain capitalist Romney is like money from home for the Democrats.
Or is it? Does it bring up that issue too early and rob it of effectiveness later on, particularly considering it's tainted source?
Besides, it gives Romney the chance to hone his defense and be primed for it later. All in all, this primary fight -- ridiculous as it has been -- has made Romney a much much better debater and an improved campaigner.
So, all in all, it's probably a draw with a possible negative advantage. Think of the possibility of Dem ads running this stuff as "this is what Republicans were saying about Romney in the primary."
Now, however, comes Stephen Colbert's fake presidential campaign and his "Definitely Not Coordinating With Stephen Colbert Super PAC" ad. This one is brilliant satire.
It begins with an American flag waving, then a video of Mittens saying, "Corporations are people." Then a picture of sides of beef being butchered and a voice-over saying that, as head of Bain, Romney took over corporations, carved them up, and got rid of parts he didn't want. "So, if corporations are people, then Romney is a serial killer !!!"
It's brilliant !!! It's funny, it uses Mittens' own language, and draws the logical conclusion to lampoon his position on corporations, vulture capitalism, job loss, and the 1%-er image.
Personally, I believe that this will do more harm than all of Newt's vicious attacks. It will run viral on the internet -- and won't go away. It can easily be revived in the fall, and it won't cost a dime. For now, the Dems should just sit quietly by and let it happen.
Ralph
PS: On a side note, both Gingrich and Perry have attacked Romney on his "vulture capitalism," citing his plant closing role at Bain Capital, one being in Gaffney, S. C. And of course several of the Repub candidates are there campaigning in the S. C. primary.
The Times went to look into it. Nobody the reporter talked to there could even remember the closing many years ago. It was a small plant that made photo albums and employed 150 people. After it closed, another manufacturing plant opened in the same spot that employed 80 people. They looked through the newspaper archives and could not even find the plant closing mentioned in the local paper. Not that it didn't happen; it just wasn't regarded as very significant at the time.
So -- what makes a good political weapon isn't always related to its significance at the time.
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The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) on the national news, showed a brief video clip of Gingrich's latest vicious attack ad; Romney speaking French - imagine...Sacre Bleu
ReplyDeleteThis is civil war !! The establishment Repubs are probably going to turn on Newt with a vengeance. Which, of course, is what Newt is doing. He has no chance of winning; he's just venting his rage and roughing up the eventual winner.
ReplyDeleteIt's called "narcissistic rage." It can be titanic and very destructive. Newt not only has been defeated. He has been humiliated -- he held himself out as the savior of Western Civilization, capitalism, and Christianity. And he has been rejected in favor of a Mormon Ken Doll.
It's the same kind of thing that inspired the phrase: "Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned."
Huffington Post's Jason Linkins had this to say about the "King of Bain" 28 minute documentary that Newt's PAC has been running that has the whole GOP establishment in apoplexy:
ReplyDelete"It decries the indifference of Romney's brand of capitalism, and puts a human face on income inequality. If you wanted to mount an argument against corporate personhood on the grounds that a corporation cannot have a moral compass, this will do the trick. In fact, if you screened this before an Occupy encampment, it would almost certainly draw a thunderous ovation."
You might think Newt has forgotten which side he's on here. But, no. Newt "bottomless reservoir of immutable rage" (Linkins' phrase) has unmoored him from reason. Think Captain Ahab going after the white whale that took off his leg. Such narcissistic rage doesn't care if it brings down the whole house.