Summary of last night's final debate before the S.C. primary:
Going by audience reaction, Newt won it hands down. He got two standing ovations (for his angry tirade against the moderator's asking him about his ex-wife's revelations), while Romney got booed (for his vague answer about releasing his tax returns.)
Rick Santorum signalled he knew it was his swan song, saying he was honored to be standing here among the final four -- with a tone that said this is as far as he expects to get. He didn't say he would be dropping out, but he's polling in last place now that Perry has exited. Even the reversal that gave him the win in Iowa doesn't seem to have helped elsewhere.
And Ron Paul was . . . well, he was once again the entertaining, slightly wacky Ron Paul who will get a sizable chunk of votes but never rise to be a real threat to the other two.
Nate Silver still gives Romney the likely win in S.C. (by 62%, down from high 80s% last week before Newt's latest surge). There was a brief time yesterday when he had Romney and Gingrich tied at 50% each chance of winning S.C.
Will Marianne's interview on ABC (aired last night after the debate) hurt Newt? Not with the right wing, apparently. They've already decided that his bad boy behavior can be tolerated -- rationalized by his declared repentance -- and they suddenly found his intelligence and the possibility that he could oust Romney even more compelling.
Unfortunately, they're playing Marianne's bombshell wrong, emphasizing his asking for an open marriage (which he denies). My guess is that he didn't use the term; he just asked for it, in effect, by asking her to stay married but allow him to continue having Callista as his mistress; but he can still claim that he didn't ask for an "open marriage."
For all his smearing Obama for adopting "European socialist" ideas, this is a very "French" view of marriage and political tolerance of infidelity in their leaders. And the right wing is accepting it; that's the amazing thing. That's how bad they want to defeat Romney and Obama.
The real point, though, is one of Newt's character and integrity. And in Marianne's interview with Esquire in 2010, she said that he has no integrity. She also has damaging things to say about his inability to manage money, his spendthrift habits, his refusal to pay her temporary support during the divorce proceedings. They should make this the issue, not his bad behavior, for which he can repent.
He can't repent away his character.
Ralph
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Since I posted this less than 2 hours ago, Nate Silver's predictions have swung, so that he now gives Newt a 60% chance of winning in S. C. This is based on a slight edge in voter preference and a big momentum swing toward him. The swing is not so much away from Romney as consolidating the votes of the anti-Romney crowd as Perry drops out and Santorum's share declines.
ReplyDeleteBut as of now -- and it's very volatile -- look for Gingrich to win South Carolina. That will make an interesting mix: Santorum wins Iowa, Romney wins New Hampshire, and Gingrich wins South Carolina.
Romney is still the big favorite in Florida -- but, I repeat, this is a very volatile compaign.