Polls of the popular vote have been back and forth, with Romney leading on some days, Obama leading on others. Too close to call as anything but a tie that could go either way -- that is, the popular vote.
However, Nate Silver points out that his prediction model of electoral votes, using averages of polls weighted for their past reliability and for how recent they are, has been remarkably similar since he began the forecasts in June.
At that time, Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia were the closest state races, with Obama slightly ahead in all three; and Romney showing a modest lead in Florida and North Carolina.
Exactly the same is true today -- consistent over the past four months. In fact, the leader in each of the 50 states is exactly the same as it was in June.
So, as close as the numbers are, the consistency over time suggests that even slight leads are probably significant. And on election day, it takes only one more vote in each of the 50 states to win its total electoral votes (with a couple of minor exceptions, one in Maine and one in Nebraska, each for 1 of their electoral votes being decided another way).
Accordingly, Silver still predicts a 72.9% chance of an Obama win, with an electoral victory of 297 to 241.
May it be so . . .
Ralph
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