3 days left, and the tide is shifting to Obama

I'm almost afraid to believe my own reassurance, but there do seem to be clear indications that the tide is shifting to Obama.

The popular vote is still virtually a tie, but the electoral vote is definitely in Obama's favor.

Even the more volatile Huffington Post's daily analysis of polls now gives Obama 277 electoral votes and reports that latest polls in Ohio give him a 6% lead and in Florida a 2% lead.

The consensus is that there are 7 battleground states:   FL, OH, VA, WI, CO, IA, NH.  There is no scenario in which Romney can win the election without winning Florida., even if he wins the other 6 of the 7 battleground states.  Those 6 would give him 60 additional electoral votes, and he has to have 64 on top of those considered "leaning Romney."

In addition to FL, however, he would also have to win most of the other 6 battleground states, say FL, OH, VA, and WI;  or, if he didn't win OH, it could be FL, VA, WI, IA, NH.

But that means he has to win 4 or 5 of the 7 battleground states in all of which Obama has a slight lead -- even IF he wins FL, which Obama leads by 2% in the latest poll.

On the other hand, Obama only needs 27 more electoral votes to add to his "leaning Obama" states total to get the necessary 270.   So he could win FL and lose all the other battleground states (very unlikely:  he's least likely to win FL but if he did he would certainly win others too).   Or winning OH and WI, without any of the others, would do it.  So there are multiple, quite plausible routes to an Obama win;   not so much for Romney.   If he loses FL, there's no way.   If he wins FL, he also has to win OH or VA, plus others.


Nate Silver's more reliable summary and analysis of the polls gives Obama an 83.7 chance of winning the election with 305 electoral votes.

So, yes, the reassurance is there.  But there are also the dirty trickster Republicans, trained by Karl Rove and bankrolled by the Koch brother, Sheldon Adelson, etc.

So I do not rest easy yet.

Ralph