Netanyahu could lose in Tuesday's election, and Palestinian citizens of Israel could tip the balance

Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party is behind by two seats in some polls to the chief rival, the Zionist Union, led by Isaac Herzog.   A measure of Bibi's desperation is that he has swung ever further to the right, by stating that there will never be a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict while he is prime minister.

One way that could become true is for him not to be the next Prime Minister, although that definitely is not what he meant.   But it now seems a real possibility.  Who wins is not so simple in their multi-party, parliamentary system, which usually relies on the leading party forming coalitions with smaller parties to establish a government and elect the PM.

Whether Likud or the Zionist Union comes out ahead, either will be far from having a majority.   One could win by a seat or two but not be the real winner -- because it really comes down to which can form a coalition that adds up to a majority.

And here come the Palestinians.    There are 1.6 million who are citizens of Israel with the right to vote, unlike those who live in the West Bank and Gaza.   Until this election, they have been divided among four different political parties.   Because none has been large enough to wield much influence, Palestinians have had little political power even though they hold some seats in Parliament;  and voters have become rather apathetic about their votes making a difference.

But for this election, the four have united to form the Joint List party, making it the third largest party, behind Likud and Zionist Union.   If they choose to join a coalition of either, it certainly will not be Netanyahu and Likud -- and this could be the deciding factor that prevents him from cobbling together the 61 necessary seats for a majority.

It's complex, and the outcome will not likely be known for days after Tuesday's election.  Stay tuned.

Ralph