The consequences of Netanyahu's "ugly" victory

According to the last pre-election polls, Herzog's Zionist Union party was leading Netanyahu's Likud party by 4 seats (26 to 22).   Netanyahu made a fear-mongering plea to the far right not to squander their votes on the small, religious parties but to vote for Likud so that he could continue anti-Palestinian, pro-settlement policies.   He even promised that, as long as he was Prime Minister, there would be no two-state solution.

He got the results he wanted.   The final count gave him 29 seats to 24 for Zionist Union, and Herzog has conceded.   This is very disappointing because, as Jonathan Alter points out in a Daily Beast article, 

"Netanyahu won a big election . . .  but he won ugly by staking our a new position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that is likely to harm his nation in the months ahead. .

"Netanyahu wielded security issues as a polarizing political weapon, overcoming personal unpopularity and a mediocre economic record with a campaign based largely on fear.  It worked.

"But at what cost? . . .  Should he go back on this pledge, his right-wing supporters would desert him and he would be forced to call another election . . . that he would likely lose.

Netanyahu knows that intransigence on the Palestinians is harmful to his purported security priority—confronting a nuclear Iran. He knows that Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey, and other countries can’t ally with Israel against Iran until he makes peace with the Palestinians. But he was willing to do what it takes to win."

Alter predicts that "the world will do what it takes to punish his government," including boycotts and divestments on the international markets, as well as possible sanctions.

And now that Netanyahu can no longer claim that he is trying to achieve peace with the Palestinians, his policies "will look increasingly illegitimate."   In short, this may be a hollow victory, both because it does nothing to improve Israel's economic conditions and it further isolates Israel from the international community.

As to the effect on relations with the U.S., Netanyahu has clearly thrown in his lot with the Republicans in Congress rather than with President Obama.  Further, the U.S. Congress has no say in how the U. S. votes in the United Nations, where the Palestinians' petition for recognition becomes even more urgent and persuasive.    The administration appoints the U. N. ambassador to the U. N., who is part of the administration, not the congress.

Alter even suggests that Israel can no longer assume protection of its interests at the U. N. by an automatic U. S. veto, particularly when it comes to the goal of establishing a Palestinian state.

Bibi may have won an election;   he will probably form a coalition government with him as Prime Minister.   But has he lost the war?    Maybe.    He has definitely lost some of the support of Americans, Europeans, and even other Islamic Middle Easterners who find it increasingly difficulty to defend his apartheid-like treatment of the Palestinians.   

Ralph