A third view of the Donald Trump phenomenon -- and, Donald, you're fired !

Nate Silver, the analytic guru of polling and political trends, gave us a third view of the Donald Trump Phenomenon in The New York Times online.    The central point is that Trump's shooting up in the polls is primarily an exaggerated example of "media driven surge."   And he explains why this is so, based on Trump's high name recognition and the fact that:

"He has been perfecting the art of attracting media attention for more than two decades, first in New York and then nationwide.   Today, he is a celebrity, the biggest and best-known personality in the race, someone who would attract an unusual amount of attention and interest even if he said nothing unusual or interesting.   Mr. Trump, of course, made unusual and provocative comments from the start."

This surge may have a shorter shelf life you might think.    Silver predicts that Trump's criticism of John McCain's heroism (he spent five years imprisoned and tortured by the North Vietnamese) will be the inflection point of a nose dive in his polls.

While his opponents and Republican party elites had been cautiously critical of Trump's attack on Mexican immigrants, his attack on a national hero like McCain has led to swift condemnation from those same Republicans.   Silver predicts that this "will probably mark the moment when Trump's candidacy went from boom to bust." 

"His support will erode as the tone of coverage shifts from publicizing his anti-establishment and anti-immigration views, which have some resonance in the party, to reflecting the chorus of Republican criticism of his most outrageous comments and the more liberal elements of his record. . . ."

Silver points to what will likely become the focus when journalists and other campaigns begin to examine Trump's record.   They will find that over the last decade he has actually contributed more money to Democrats (including Hillary Clinton) than to Republicans .   He has supported universal health care, favors pro-choice on abortion, and has advocated tax increases of $5 trillion.

"After today, Republican commentators and campaigns will have far fewer reservations about attacking Mr. Trump. . . .  He will probably try to stoke support and coverage with more attention-grabbing remarks, though my hunch is that his act will have lost its novelty . . . .   Voters will be looking for more from him than the bombastic campaign he has offered so far. They will be looking for a serious presidential candidate, and they won’t find one."

Nate Silver has a superb track record for being right about election predictions.   I think he will be right on this one too.

Ralph